Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING LOWER HEIGHTS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THINK THE MODELS ARE BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND WILL AGAIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF
100 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG S/WV TONIGHT AND A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS
TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA AND KEEP
ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE TRENDED COOLER ON SUNDAY FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS...LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE ETA AND
GFS INDICATE A STRONG S/WV WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND PRODUCE A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NITE AND SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ONE MORE DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

.HGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

43/33

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 077/101 076/095 073 223
IAH BB 078/100 076/095 074 122
GLS BB 081/092 080/089 079 122

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