Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ANGELINA COUNTY TO AUSTIN COUNTY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALLOWED THE STORM TO DEVELOP. HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES.
TWENTY PERCENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. NO
OTHER CHANGES. 46/33

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL PRODUCING BRISK WINDS ACROSS CWFA BUT
SHOULD SLACK OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
ARKANSAS. DRY LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
DRAMATICALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AS IT APPROACH NW ZONES. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...CENTRAL ZONES NEAR MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST
NEAR 07Z. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH BROKEN CLOUDINESS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH BEST LIFT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAIN PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY
IN RESPONSE TO FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. GFS HINTING AT WEDNESDAY
HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THESE SERIES OF IMPULSES
W/STRONGER LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET. FRIDAY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS MID WEST (NORTH OF OUR REGION) WITH ENERGY SHEARING DURING
THE WEEKEND. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS AT THIS
TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE MARGINAL...HENCE WE WILL
KEEP POPS AT THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.

WE WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FOR BAYS AND 0-20 NM COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 20-60 NM COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT.

37/47/DH

.HGX...SCA 20 TO 60 NM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
       SCEC BAYS AND 0-20 NM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

CLL EE 041/050 041/053 043 126
IAH EE 046/056 043/057 045 125
GLS EE 055/058 049/058 051 125

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.