Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2003

KHGX SHOWS AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL ZONES
AS HEATING...A SFC TROF...AND WEAK SEA BREEZE HAVE PRODUCED SCT
STRONG SHWRS AND TSTMS. EXPECT SCT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERN AREAS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY SEE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP POP WORDING ALL NIGHT WITH N/NE FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SE TEXAS.
USING THE DW PT FIELD...THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TYLER TEXAS. THERE IS A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC TROF.
WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER DW PTS EXPECTED WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT LIKELY TO EVER PRODUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO SHUT DOWN PRECIP
DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. EXPECT PW VALUES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY ARE NOW. BECAUSE OF THESE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH HAVE NOT
BEEN HANDLED TOO WELL BY THE MODELS OF LATE...WILL FORECAST HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE POP TOMORROW. WILL STILL HAVE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE TO WORK WITH AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
ROCKIES AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL BRING A SIMILAR...BUT LIKELY SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN THAT WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
CHANCE OF RAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

33/45

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 075/094 074/095 074 232
IAH BB 075/092 075/093 075 342
GLS BB 080/089 080/089 080 342

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SLOWER MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO CLEVELAND LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.