Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
155 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE AREA.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK IN KANSAS. THE FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE KICKS EAST. 50H TROF WILL SLOWLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH THE TROF AXIS CROSSING SE TX SOMETIME
SAT AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO
STRONG SFC AND 85H CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC AND 85H FRONTS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SE TX WILL ALSO LIE IN A
STRENGTHENING 90 KT RRQ BY 12Z SAT MORNING. TIMING OF THE VORT LOBES
IS DIFFICULT...BUT FEEL THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH A SECOND STRONGER VORT ON SAT MORNING.

TWO CONCERNS...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN

1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
EXISTS AS A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT AROUND 900 MB. WET BULB ZERO
IS RATHER HIGH SO HAIL IS NOT AS LIKELY...BUT COULD STILL OCCUR.
THERE IS ENOUGH WIND SHEAR PRESENT THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

2) FEEL THE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ORIENTED WITH THE UPPER FLOW...HIGH PWS
NEAR TWICE THE NORMAL...STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TENDS TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FOR SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE INDICATES THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT THAT ISOLATED RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. WILL UPDATE
THE HWOHGX BY 4 PM WITH THE DETAILS.

MUCH COLDER AIR ON SUN/MON MORNINGS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE UK AMD ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NEXT WEEKS 50H
TROF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS/FRI. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
GOING FOR NOW. 43/46

.HGX...SCEC 20-60 NM COASTAL WATERS FOR REST OF TONIGHT.
       SCA 20-60 NM COASTAL WATERS FOR FRIDAY.

PRELIMS...
CLL TU 063/069 038/052 029 79-
IAH TU 063/063 041/057 030 5+2
GLS TU 062/062 048/055 040 4+2

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND 10 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO FAVORS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.