Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

EXPECT ONGOING TSRA TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS UPPER JET MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG 500 MB
LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SRN CA/AZ. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
TEXAS...40 KNOT LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE TNGT/EARLY MONDAY TRANSPORTING
A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE NWD ACROSS CWA. PWS FCST TO INCREASE TO 1.8
INCHES MONDAY PEAKING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION: ONE ON MONDAY WITH
WAA/INCREASING LIFT AND MAIN ROUND MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE CELLS
MONDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION. THINK WILL SEE GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS OVERCOMING LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CWA WILL GO INTO RRQ OF 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TUE. MODELS SHOW
LIFT MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 02Z-09Z TUE. STRONG DRY PUNCH
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE ALONG
FRONT WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR
TORNADOES POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN STAY
BACKED. WILL GO LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS CWA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL PUT SEVERE THREAT/HEAVY RAIN IN FCST STARTING MON AFTN.

RAPID DRYING WILL FOLLOW FROPA EARLY TUESDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 15Z. SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUE AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FANTASTIC WEATHER EXPECTED.

MODELS IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM. 00Z RUNS DID
A MAJOR FLIP-FLOP KEEPING MOST OF THE ENERGY OFF THE WEST COAST AND
SHOWING MUCH WEAKER TROF AND FROPA FOR TEXAS. 12Z GFS HAS GONE BACK
TO ITS OLDER SOLUTION WITH LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER PLAINS AND
STRONG FROPA OCCURRING LATE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN FCST THIS
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY AND LEAVE IT AT THAT.

MARINE...SCEC MAINTAINED FOR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCEC
FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FROPA.

35/42

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SCEC HI ISLAND TO MATAGORDA OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 067/078 058/071 044 388
IAH TB 069/079 061/073 045 378
GLS TB 073/079 066/072 054 368

MONDAY RECORDS FOR GALVESTON:
HIGH MIN 73/1921
REC HIGH 80/1986

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
MONDAY PRODUCING HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...OR DAMAGING WINDS.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN 8 PM MONDAY EVENING AND 3 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
HAIL OR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF
STREETS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.