Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2003

AT 01Z...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG A TYLER TO
BRENHAM TO ALICE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WILL LIKE STAY WHERE IT IS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH PSS AOA 2.2 INCHES...NOT QUITE AS RICH AS LAST NIGHT BUT
PLENTY MOIST. AT 85H...A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM
A CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE ARKLATEX. 85H DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 15
TO 17 DEGREE RANGE SO MSTR IS READILY AVAILABLE. THINK BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG THE SFC AND 85H BOUNDARIES BUT AFTER LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTIVE BURST...AM RELUCTANT TO GET CUTE WITH ZONE
GROUPINGS AND POPS. WILL TRIM POPS A TAD AND RAISE TEMPS CENTRAL AND
COAST. CURRENT FFA WILL STAY AS IS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
MARINE...MAINLY TO LOWER SEAS. 43/35

PREVIOUS: MESSY...MESSY...MESSY.  850-500 FLOW INDICATING THAT
MOISTURE TAP IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GRACE NEAR PRX
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST (THOUGH THE RUC GIVES IT A LOOP DE
LOOP TRACK BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS). SETX GETS INTO A LL COL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD YIELD UP VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS TONIGHT BUT LITTLE CONVERGENCE. IPWV 2.2-2.3 ACROSS THE
AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN...WITH A MINIMA IN BETWEEN. WILL
RE-EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH BACK WEST AND RUN IT TIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
WILL BE FAVORING THE ETA12 FOR WINDS AND THE WINDSHIFT WOBBLING
AROUND AND PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE NW ZONES TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
THEN RETREATING. COLD FRONT IS SHALLOW AND WIND PROFILERS IN WEST
TEXAS/AND VIS SATELLITE DONT GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE COOL AIR
HAS MUCH PUSH. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS TONIGHT AND TAPER BACK TO
CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE
CARRIBEAN...ETA TAKES DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAITS AND
THEN SLOWS AND GETS CARRIED OFF NORTHEAST...AVN UPPER PATTERN
INDICATES IT WOULD TRACK WEST...THOUGH MORE SHEARED/HYBRID. WILL
MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

45/37/DH/BT

.HGX...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 9 AM.

PRELIMS
CLL TE 072/086 072/090 072 854
IAH TE 074/085 073/090 073 754
GLS TE 078/086 079/088 079 754

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2003

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
FLOW OFF THE GULF PERSISTS. TRAINING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
LAKE LIVINGSTON TO NEW CANEY TO HOUSTON TO RICHMOND TO WHARTON TO
CORDELE. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
STRONGEST TRAINING DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION. PREPAREDNESS PLANS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED.