Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
135 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCLUDE A FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THE STRONG /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ CONVECTION AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT.

THERE COULD BE A LEFTOVER SHOWER EARLY TONIGHT...OTHERWISE QUITE A
BIT OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SOME DRYING OVERNIGHT DONT EXPECT ENOUGH FOG TO PUT INTO THE ZONES.
ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE THAT AND ALLOW
SOME GROUND FOG TO FORM.

ON SUNDAY...GFS MODEL NOW AGREEING BETTER WITH NGM/ETA SOLUTIONS.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME
SUNSINE.  GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL VIA PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY VALUES IN FWC/ETC..

HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET/FWC
NUMBERS.  THE EXTENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE MRF AND MEX GUIDANCE.

...COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.  SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE ON WINDS AND WAVES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT.

FCSTID =    2

.GYX...
ME...SVR TSTM WTCH NMBR 861 TIL 5 PM.
NH...NONE.

SJC

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-161700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AND
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WESTERN MAINE...

ANDROSCOGGIN...CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...KENNEBEC...KNOX...
LINCOLN...SOUTHERN OXFORD...SAGADAHOC...SOUTHERN SOMERSET...WALDO
AND YORK.

IN ADDITION...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN MAINE.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MEZ012>014-018>028-NHZ003>010-013-014-162200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN WESTERN MAINE...

ANDROSCOGGIN...CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...KENNEBEC...KNOX...
LINCOLN...SOUTHERN OXFORD...SAGADAHOC...SOUTHERN SOMERSET...WALDO
AND YORK.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 500 PM.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE LIVING OR VACATIONING IN THESE AREAS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE COVER IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
THEIR AREA.  BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO HEAD TO SAFE HARBOR
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS STATION
...FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/GYX

SJC/HAYES

NHZ003-005-161930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRAFTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...

LOOK FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER GRAFTON COUNTY BETWEEN
HAVERHILL AND LYME AFTER 140 PM.  AS THE STORM MOVES EAST AND
AFFECTS PIERMONT...WARREN...WENTWORTH AND RUMNEY THROUGH 215 PM...
IT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE
SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

IF YOU ARE IN GRAFTON COUNTY...BE ON THE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SHELTER AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

HAYES

MEZ018>021-023>025-NHZ010-162130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THROUGH 445 PM...

AT 330 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR
LIVERMORE FALLS IN ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR WOLFEBORO
IN CARROLL COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE...THEY WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE SIZED AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  IN
ADDITION...UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES COULD RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

IF YOU ARE IN SOUTHWEST MAINE...BE ON THE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER AND SEEK SHELTER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

HAYES

NHZ007>009-162200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

AT 405 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOP LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR GILMANTON
IN BELKNAP COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHARLESTOWN IN SULLIVAN COUNTY.
AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEY WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
30 MINUTES.  THIS COULD RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.  IF YOU ARE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BE ON THE ALERT
FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND SEEK SHELTER AS THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

HAYES