Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW FORMATION AT THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS UPPER SUPPORT RACES TO CATCH UP TO REGION OF LOW
LEVEL SURFACE MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. SURGE OF HIGH EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS COMBINING WITH THE
INCREASED HELICITY AHEAD OF THE MESO LOW TO ENHANCE SVR/TORNADO
THREAT THIS MORNING. WITH 850 MB 50KT JET MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO
THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...GRADIENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND CONVECTIVE WIND THREATS
WILL BE PLAYED UP INSTEAD IN THE ZONE TEXT.

CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS LESS THAN 6K FT WILL REQUIRE
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SECOND
SHOT.

MODELS HAVE FINALLY AGREED ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT KICKS THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY. NW FLOW CONSISTS OF A 40 KT JET
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED COLD
ADVECTION SO NO HIGH WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE REQUIRED AND WINDS WILL
BE ADVERTISED NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AMPLIFIED RIDGING AND STRONG DRYING WILL SET IN LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT FROPA SLATED FOR MONDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 68 46 64 41 / 99 20 00 00
AND 68 43 65 40 / 99 20 00 00
CLT 69 43 63 39 / 99 30 00 00
HKY 67 45 61 38 / 99 30 10 00
AVL 64 40 59 36 / 99 20 10 00
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY GAZ010...GAZ017>018.
NC...FLOOD WATCH TODAY NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
SC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ001>007.
&&

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOUNTAINS WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH BY
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH WIND WATCH...CAENPWGSP...FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEE THE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCAL 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE FLOOD WATCH...CAEFFAGSP...FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRETCHED
THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY PIEDMONT SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-192100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WARMING
AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPEMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

07