Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY CHARGING ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND WRN GA. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AS A SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NE OUT OF
THE MID CONTINENTAL TROUGH. THIS FIRST WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE
NRN STREAM WHILE THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TNGT.

HIGH WINDS... MODELS PROG A 50-60 KT LLVL MIND MAXIMUM TO AFFECT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING ABOUT NOW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TYPICALLY IT TAKES WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OR
JUST PLAIN STRATIFORM RAIN...TO BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. WHILE
WNDS ASSOCIATED W/STRONGER ELEMENTS WOULD MORE PROPERLY BE CALLED
SEVERE...THINK THERE WL BE ENUF PCPN OVERNGHT FOR WNDS TO
PERIODICALLY REACH THE SFC EVEN W/VERY INNOCUOUS CELLS.

HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IT...BUT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WIND THREAT WED
NGHT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THE 18 UTC ETA IS
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN AS IT HAS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE...MORE OPEN TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS RESULTS IN A
BETTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. GFS HAS 12 MB PRESSURE RISES IN 12
HRS IN THE NC MTNS WED NGHT. SUCH RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED
W/DAMAGE IN THE PAST. HOWEVER...CAA LOOKS TO BE LACKING. LATER
SHIFTS WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS HOWEVER.

HEAVY RAIN... HPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 3 TO 5 INCH QPF MAX ACROSS THE
SRN NC MTNS. AS AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS N...AND SRN
STREAM LOW MOVES EAST...A STRONG COUPLED JET WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN CAROLINAS 6 TO 12 UTC TNGT. SOME CONCERN THAT MCS...WHICH IS
ALREADY A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...MAY DISRUPT UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND GFS HINT THAT STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE WL SLOW
DOWN AS IT GETS INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A STANDING
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR A WHILE. EITHER WAY...FFA IS CERTAINLY
WARRANTED. AS FORCING MOVES FARTHER E...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE WED MORNING...AND WL NOT ISSUE FFA ANY FARTHER E THAN IT
ALREADY EXTENDS.

AS UPPER LOW CROSSES CWA TMRW AFTN...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA.
W/LOW WBZ/S HAIL A GOOD BET AND WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS.

DRYING LATE WED SHOULD CLEAR PCPN OUT BY 00 UTC THU.

EXTENDED....ENSEMBLES CONTINUE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AS ONE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND ANOTHER CLOSES OFF AND MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST...UNTIL A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN APPEARS AT DAY 6 WITH THE
IMMINENT CROSSING OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MAJOR COLD FRONT. FORECAST
HAS BEEN KEPT DRY UNTIL CHANCE POPS APPEAR WITH THE FROPA MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 60 64 46 62 / 99 99 30 10
AND 60 64 46 62 / 99 99 20 10
CLT 62 65 48 62 / 90 99 40 10
HKY 59 63 46 60 / 99 99 60 10
AVL 55 59 43 58 / 99 99 50 10
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES GAZ010...GAZ017.

FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES GAZ010...
GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028.

NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033...NCZ048>053...
NCZ058>059...NCZ062>063.

FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES NCZ033>034...
NCZ048>055...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>067.
&&

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOUNTAINS WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH BY
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH WIND WATCH...CAENPWGSP...FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEE THE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCAL 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE FLOOD WATCH...CAEFFAGSP...FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRETCHED
THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY PIEDMONT SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-190400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CAROLINAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BY EARLY
EVENING...AND WORK STEADILY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE A MAJOR FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION...AND FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IS
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
NEARLY 70 MPH AS WINDS INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. A DRAMATIC TURNING OF THE WIND IS ALSO
FORECAST...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT.....AND FURTHER EAST TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
SOURCE...FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

NCZ051-058-062-182315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 5:30 AND 6 PM...AND INTO WESTERN MACON COUNTY
SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...THEY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
60 MPH AS THEY ENTER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LANE