Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA LINE AT THIS HOUR.
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FROM THE
TENNESSEE LINE...WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
BECAME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 70S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. VAD WIND PROFILE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO BE
BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT AND MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL
BE TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WILL BE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER 85H/70H Q-VECTORS COINCIDENT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
JET CORE AT 85H. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CORE OF 70 TO 90 KT WINDS
NOT FAR ABOVE WHAT WOULD REPRESENT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THROWING IN COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND FACT THAT TREES STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LEAF COVER TO
INCREASE SURFACE AREA...WE WILL BLANKET ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS WITH A HIGH
WIND WARNING. GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FOOTHILL
PART OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE TO COVER THE RIDGETOPS NEAR
6000 FEET FROM JONAS RIDGE TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...AND WE WILL TRY
TO MAKE THAT CLEAR IN THE ACCOMPANYING STATEMENT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...AND THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGD ON BOTH ETA AND GFS TO HUG THE WESTERN
FACING SLOPES IN THE FACE OF THE STIFF CORE OF UPSLOPE WINDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWER BUT WE HAVE ELIMINATED POPS BY
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE WARMED MID LEVEL THICKNESSES
SO DOES NOT APPEAR FLURRIES POSSIBLE NOW AS IN MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY.

COLD ADVECTION CUTS OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. GRADIENT WEAKENS AND ALTHOUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE BREEZY...WE
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WESTERN FACING SLOPE
AREAS BUT DOES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. MODELS BRING ANOTHER VORT
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
BUMPED UP SKY COVER FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND COULD ALSO
AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL ADDRESS IN STATEMENT. WE WERE INITIALLY
CONCERNED WITH FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT
WITH RATHER LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...WE WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR
NOW.

WARM ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR THURSDAY IN PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...WITH RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM POISED TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AS FRIDAY ENDS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BURRUS

FRI NGHT THROUGH TUE...IN THIS MORNING/S PREEPD HPC FAVORED THE GFS
OVER MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE 00 AND 12 UTC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...LENDING CREDENCE TO THIS IDEA. IN PARTICULAR...THEY
BOTH DEVELOP A STRONG...NEARLY CUT OFF LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROF
AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS SAT. THE NEW RUN KEEPS DEFORMATION ZONE
PCPN OVER THE CWA MOST OF THE DAY ON SAT. HOWEVER...MOST OFFICES IN
THE CLUSTER GONE DRY DURING THE DAY. I WL INTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FRI NGHT...BUT WL WAIT ANOTHER RUN BEFORE GOING INTO SAT.

HAVE GONE A LITTLE UNDER ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS...AND QUITE A BIT
BELOW HPC NUMBERS...SAT NGHT THROUGH MON. WOULD EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S
MANY AREAS SAT NGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY. TROF FLATTENS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HGHTS BEGIN TO FALL THE WEST. THUS HAVE GONE A LITTLE
WARMER AND INCREASED CLOUDS.  MCAVOY

&&

FCST ID = 44

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 46 73 42 72 / 20 00 00 00
AND 48 74 44 72 / 20 00 00 00
CLT 47 74 43 71 / 20 00 00 00
HKY 44 70 40 70 / 20 10 00 00
AVL 42 66 36 67 / 20 00 00 10
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES PIEDMONT.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-141145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-151000-

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
412 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND
FREEZING IN MANY OF THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE COUNTIES OF AVERY... MITCHELL... YANCEY... MADISON... AND
BUNCOMBE HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT YET AFFECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND A FREEZE WATCH OR WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FREEZE EVENT.

MCAVOY