Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

WARMING TOP MCS OVER EASTERN KY AND WEST VA CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. WITHIN THE CWA...CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND LEE TROF...THESE CELLS ARE
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SE. WILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
FROM NATIVE SH/TS AND REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING MCS...ARRIVING IN THE
0-6Z WINDOW. WITH CAPES > 3K AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL REISSUE SPS
FOR THE SEVERE AND HIGH RAINFALL THREAT. BY DAYBREAK...COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAPED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA. WITH A TRIGGERING
MECHANISM SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...I FELL VERY COMFORTABLE
FORECASTING OVER MOS...WITH POPS IN THE MID TO U30S. WILL EXPECT
FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE FA BY SUNSET SAT. SAT NIGHT...1023 MB
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE MESOETA SHOWS A WEAK
CAD-LIKE SYSTEM TO BUILD OVER THE FT.HILLS AND PIEDMONT BY SUN AM.
WITH LITTLE UPGLIDE AND DECENT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST A
PARTLY (SOUTH) TO MOSTLY (NORTH) SUNNY DAY...AND WILL FAVOR THE
COOLER MOS TEMPS.

MON AND TUES...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE FA...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WILL INCREASE TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FROM WED THROUGH FRI...GFS
SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY
WEDNESDAY AM...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FA. GFS LIS COOL TO AROUND
-4C WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL...THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WHEN COMPARED WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ISOLATED EAST. COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE FA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BLANKET CWA WITH
CHC POPS FAVORING THE MTNS. FRI NIGHT...GFS DEPICTS THAT THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BE CALLED FABIAN...WOULD BE OVER THE
NW GULF AS THE FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH. UNCERTAINTIES GATHER
IN THE DETAILS OF THE OUTER PERIODS. BUT WILL KEEP TRENDS SIMILAR TO
THE GFS DEPICTION...KEEPING POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER ON
FRI.

FCSTID = 16

GSP 70 89 68 84 / 50 40 30 10
AND 70 90 70 86 / 50 40 30 10
CLT 71 88 66 84 / 50 40 30 10
HKY 69 86 64 82 / 50 40 20 10
AVL 64 84 63 81 / 50 30 20 10

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UNDER PRODUCT
LABEL CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING THE
SATURDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-222100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO SOME OF THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE SUMMER. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE...RESULTING IN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RWH