Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED ALTHOUGH CHANGES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FEW. EAST TO WEST FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE IN
SURFACE WIND FIELD EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN POLK COUNTY EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY AND ROWAN COUNTY.  MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS ACCOMPANIES THE WIND CONFLUENCE.  NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE... SURFACE WINDS ARE NORTHEAST WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH... AT LEAST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS... BUT
TERRAIN IS MAKING RESOLUTION OF LOWER LEVEL WIND RATHER DIFFICULT.
LATEST RUC SHOWS 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST
TO OUR WEST CONTINUING TO MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD.  AIR MASS OVER
CWA IS UNSTABLE... BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.  FORECAST CAPES DURING TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING DISPLAY A GRADIENT RANGING FROM 1900 IN WEST TO
3200 IN EAST.  WILL CONTINUE POPS IN CURRENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PLAN TO INCREASE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EAST AND THE
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

LGL

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATT HIS TIME.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY HAS RESULTED IN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION. STANDING WATER ON ROADS...AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS LINGER FOR LONG
PERIODS. STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS COULD SEE QUICK RISES ACROSS
THE REGION...ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

BURRUS