Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 798. WILL
ALSO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ALL
REMAINING ZONES NOT IN WW798 IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER WATCH
FARTHER EAST IN SC/NC. A FEW TWEAKS WILL ALSO BE MADE BASED ON
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY TO BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE WEST AND TO RAISE CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL BE RAISED
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE...AND LOWERED ACROSS THE SC LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUDS/EARLIER PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RECOVERING ALL THE WAY.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOORE

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1120 AM...
WILL ISSUE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING... BUT FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS GOING TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE.  THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING WESTERN TIP OF OUR CWA NOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD MOTION
WILL AFFECT AREA... CERTAINLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LATEST LAPS AND
MSAS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS ACTUALLY JUST TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. EARLIER RUC AND 12Z ETA FORECAST DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING AFTERNOON... SO CURRENT STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO
OUR WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

LGL

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WIND THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TONIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-222000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...AFFECTING
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE...AND THE NC
MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ALONG
WITH THE REST OF THE UPSTATE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION. ALL LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SEE SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAIL
OF DIME-SIZE OR LARGER...ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE AMPLIFIED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER COULD ALSO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

JRL

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL REACH
THE COUNTIES OF RABUN...HABERSHAM...STEPHENS...AND HART BY 230 PM TO
245 PM. EVENTUALLY...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN
230 PM AND 3 PM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE MEDIA FOR UPCOMING
WEATHER WARNINGS AND PREPARE TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

244 PM     MT AIRY                   GA   HAIL
07/22/03   HABERSHAM                      PEA SIZE HAIL AND 45 MPH
                                          RECORDED WIND GUST AT
                                          COUNTY EOC BUILDING.

LAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

252 PM     TOCCOA                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   STEPHENS                       FRANKLIN 911 REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON HWY 320.

257 PM     TOCCOA                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   STEPHENS                       FRANKLIN EOC REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON WALKER RD.

130 PM     CASHIERS                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/03   JACKSON                        COUNTY EOC REPORTED TREE
                                          DOWN ON CASHIERS LAKE RD.

LAMB

NCZ034>037-054>056-066>069-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. PEOPLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE