Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

SFC TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT SLIDES
S TOWARD THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED EARLY IN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES SLIPPING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NRN FOOTHILLS IN
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SLIGHTLY BETTER MID
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER TO ALLOW TSTM MODE TO VARY FROM
WEAK MULTI CELL N TO MAINLY PULSE SEVERE S.

WEAK DRYING INTO SUN WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD INHIBIT
COVERAGE A LITTLE. LOW LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK FRONT LINGER TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SLIGHT CHC CONVECTION SUN PM. ANOTHER MAINLY DIURNAL CHC
ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER ENERGY ASSOC WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ARRIVE BY TUE ALONG WITH APPROACHING FRONT. SETUP REMAINS IMPRESSIVE
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WX THREAT FROM TUE INTO WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS. HAVE PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR TUE
AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC THROUGH WED BEFORE PARING BACK FROM THE W
ON THU.

EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR LATE
WEEK...BUT DRYING IN THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW DRY FORECAST TO GO
FORWARD FOR NEXT FRI/SAT.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   69  89  69  89 /  30  20  20  30
AND   69  90  69  90 /  30  20  20  30
CLT   69  89  69  89 /  30  20  20  30
HKY   67  87  67  87 /  40  20  20  30
AVL   64  85  64  85 /  30  20  20  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-191145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEE OUR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UNDER THE PRODUCT I.D.
CAESPSGSP...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IF THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ENOUGH...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-192100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE FASTER AND BE MORE ORGANIZED
THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS THAT LARGER AREAS MAY
SEE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

MULTIPLE STORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OR BECOME SLOW
MOVING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

NED