Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 18, 2003Davie County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2003, 6:38 PM EDT for Davie County, North Carolina. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2003, 6:38 PM EDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2003, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Davie County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 999 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1023 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

177 
WUUS52 KGSP 182238
SVRGSP
NCC059-182330-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF MOCKSVILLE...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH
  OF FARMINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOCKSVILLE AT 645 PM EDT.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS OVER SMALL AREAS...AND PERHAPS
LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO CAUSING AN UNUSUAL
AMOUNT OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING

LAT...LON 3604 8048 3603 8071 3588 8066 3578 8046

$$
NED/HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN PA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING IS OBSERVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH LAPS ANALSYS INDICATING BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS CAPPING
OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE EARLIER
TODAY...AND RADAR INDEED SHOWS TSRA FANNING OUT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
PRESENTLY. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSES OF
EQUIV POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB SUGGEST THAT
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY CONVECTION.

IR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MCS OVER THE SRN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND
STEERING CURRENT SHOULD DRIVE THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. PROMINENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS...HOWEVER...TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALSO SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. WILL THUS NEED SOLID CHC POPS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE OVER THE MTNS AND THE
NRN TIER.

UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME DRYING IS THEN INDICATED BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS ON SUNDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. ETA INSTABILITIES BUBBLE BACK
TO 2000 TO 3000 CAPES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING EVIDENT.

HEIGHTS THEN FALL IN EARNEST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. THE GFS PAINTS
A SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO AS 850 MB JET WRAPS INTO THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. WILL NEED CHANCE POPS FROM PM MONDAY
THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHC TUE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DRYING AND
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION FOR THU AND FRI...BUT DRY WEATHER STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   70  86  69  88 /  40  50  30  20
AND   70  87  69  89 /  40  50  30  20
CLT   70  85  68  88 /  40  50  30  20
HKY   68  84  66  86 /  50  50  30  20
AVL   65  83  63  84 /  50  50  30  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 5:47 AM EDT, 12 hours 51 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MCAVOY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 18, 4:19 PM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

330 PM     HENDERSONVILLE            NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   HENDERSON                      A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN
                                          DOWN ON 4TH AVENUE.

328 PM     ETOWAH                    NC   HAIL DAMAGE
07/18/03   HENDERSON                      DAMAGE REPORTED DUE TO
                                          LARGE HAIL. HAIL SIZE NOT
                                          KNOWN.

NED

Local storm report, Jul 18, 4:42 PM EDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

410 PM     COLLETTSVILLE             NC   .88 INCH HAIL
07/18/03   CALDWELL                       FIRE DEPT REPORTED NICKEL
                                          SIZE HAIL IN
                                          COLLETTSVILLE.

TJB

Local storm report, Jul 18, 5:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

349 PM     5 NE BREVARD              NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   TRANSYLVANIA                   EOC REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ON HWY 280 AND IN LITTLE
                                          RIVER.

445 PM     DYSARTSVILLE              NC   HAIL
07/18/03   MCDOWELL                       EOC STATED HAIL REPORTED
                                          IN DYSARTSVILLE BUT SIZE
                                          UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

TJB

Local storm report, Jul 18, 5:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

440 PM     CHIMNEY ROCK              NC   LIGHTNING INJURY
07/18/03   RUTHERFORD                     ***INJURED 1, DEAD 0***
                                          FIRE DEPT REPORTED PERSON
                                          HIT BY LIGHTNING IN
                                          CHIMNEY ROCK.
                                          TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL
                                          BUT ALERT AND TALKING.

TJB

Local storm report, Jul 18, 5:46 PM EDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

530 PM     LENOIR                    NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   CALDWELL                       EOC REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ON HWY 321 IN LENOIR.

TJB

Local storm report, Jul 18, 5:58 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

544 PM     ENKA                      NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   BUNCOMBE                       COUNTY EOC REPORTED ONE
                                          TREE DOWN ON ENKA LAKE
                                          RD.

LAMB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson, Transylvania	42 min
Jul 18, 3:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	56 min
Jul 18, 3:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Rutherford	48 min
Jul 18, 4:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	McDowell	40 min
Jul 18, 5:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	51 min
Jul 18, 5:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.