Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

LAPS 18Z CAPES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY >1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN.
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SH AND TS DEVELOPING OVER NC COUNTIES. WITH AN
OLD BOUNDARY...LEE TROF...AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FA
EXPECT THE POPULATION OF SH/TS TO GROW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE
HELD ONTO MENTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
ASH OUT AFTER DUSK. IN THE MEANTIME...STORMS WILL BE PULSE-LIKE AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL EVENT.

H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.
AGAIN DIURNAL TS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE U50
AND L60S WITH ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70-80S. ATMOS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE MAKING A INTERESTING AFTERNOON SOUNDING. MODIFIED TO
EXPECTED LLVL VALUES CAPES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP CHC POPS UP AROUND 40%.
THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH MOS POPS...AND COULD BE TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY
WITH FWC THUNDER POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE. THURS...AGAIN DIURNAL TS
IS THE MAIN CONCERN. FRI...A FOCUSING MECHANISM ARRIVES IN THE FROM
OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHO
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE AS
HINTED BY THE 00Z GFS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BASED ON THE
DRIER 06Z RUN...THINKING THAT ANY POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN FRONT IS NEARLY TO THE COAST. LATEST
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE
TEMPS A CATEGORY THINKING THAT CLEAR SKY BEHIND FRONT AND DOWNSLOPE
E OF MOUNTAINS WILL MORE THAN COUNTERACT WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE QUIET AND GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED
CLOSELY. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS DEVELOPS A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP IN GFS IS NO DOUBT OVERDONE IN THE
MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS A GOOD BET.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   60  80  59  80 /  50  40  40  30
AND   59  81  59  80 /  40  40  40  30
CLT   58  81  59  81 /  30  40  40  30
HKY   58  77  59  78 /  50  40  40  30
AVL   55  76  55  77 /  50  40  40  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED/MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-291210-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.