Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

MODIFIED 12Z AREA SNDGS YIELDED RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE ORDER OF 3000-3500 J/KG WHICH SHOULD
MAKE UP FOR THE RATHER WARM TEMPS WITHIN THE 70-50H LAYER. WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT STEERING FROM THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST. RATHER LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OFF GSO SNDG GIVES RISE TO
BETTER HAIL THREAT THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE...WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH MID-LVL THETA-E
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID/UPR 20S. POSSIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR
DEEP CONVECTION ARE RATHER WELL DEFINED LEE TROUGH...AS PER 12Z
HAND ANALYSIS...AND POTENTIAL SMALLER SCALE BNDRY DRIFTING IN FROM
THIS MORNING/S MCS REMNANTS. PLAN ON REFRESHING GOING SPS OUTLOOK.
14Z MTR/S INDICATE THAT MAX TEMP FCST IS ON TRACK.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   89  70  90  69 /  40  30  30  30
AND   90  70  91  69 /  40  30  30  30
CLT   89  69  90  70 /  40  30  30  30
HKY   87  66  88  66 /  40  30  30  30
AVL   85  63  85  63 /  50  30  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...OR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP) ISSUED AT 410
AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EVERY DAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON ANY GIVEN
DAY...ONE OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-162100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...

TYPICAL MID-JULY HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY...SO THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING.

BY MID AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.