Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

I HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME INTERESTING SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY...LAND
FALLING HURRICANE...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST...AND A
APPROACHING MCS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE MCS HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT TODAY RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF KY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHIELD HAS BEEN WARMING AND LIGHTNING COUNT
DROPPING AMONG OTHER SIGNS OF THE COMPLEX GENERAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH UNSTABLE AIR ON ITS TRIP
SOUTHWARD...BUT THE WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE. WILL
EXPECT AN ETA/RUC SOLUTION TO PAN OUT. WILL EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK AND WILL START TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND LARGE
OUTFLOW WILL PLAN ON SCT SH/TS TO DEVELOP AND REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC RANGE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE MTNS...WILL USE SCHC TO THE EAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT THE FA FOR WED...ETA NOT TOO EXCITED
ABOUT QPF CHC EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH CAPES AGAIN EXPECTED >2K AND
SOME UPPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE MOS...BUT WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE
MTNS...PEAKED AT 40%. THU...GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING POPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS
HIGHEST...>=3K...AND FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST EAST OR ON THE
EAST EDGE OF THE FA. I BELIEVE MOS IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL TRIM POPS BACK OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
NC...AND WILL EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR OVER THE NC
FTHILLS/PIEDMONT @ 30%.

LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SINKS OVER THE FA OVER THE MID-WEEK...AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GFS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...THE BEST FEATURE ARRIVING ON MON. WILL KEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY DIURNALLY TIMED AND WILL FAVOR THE WEST/HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHER OF CHC POPS. MRF MOS ADVERTISING SOME
L-M90S...INDEED THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME PERIODS OF >=19 H85
TEMPS...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH AND WILL LIMIT TEMPS
TO AROUND 90. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN MRF MOS ENSEMBLE
AND HPC GUIDANCE.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   70  91  71  90 /  20  40  30  30
AND   70  91  71  91 /  20  40  30  30
CLT   70  91  70  90 /  20  30  30  30
HKY   68  87  67  88 /  20  40  30  30
AVL   64  85  64  85 /  30  40  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH INCREASES THE
CHANCE THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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