Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF COOL TROF AT MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IT...WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND BOTTOM OF UPPER TROF AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET.

ON MONDAY...THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...PUTTING THE
PIEDMONT IN THE GRADIENT OF PRECIP PROBABILITY WITH CHANCE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND LIKELY TO OUR EAST. THE FORCING
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AS ENERGY PULLS OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO BE MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALSO FEATURE TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO TEMP GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT.

FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE
FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH FAVORS THE ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF. THIS SCENARIO
KEEPS PRECIP PROBABILITY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO CHANGE MUCH OF WHAT WE HAVE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES TO COME INTO LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT ANY FRONT THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH WILL BE WEAK.

FCSTID =   10
GSP   67  86  68  88 /  60  40  40  30
AND   68  86  69  88 /  60  40  40  30
CLT   67  85  68  88 /  60  50  50  40
HKY   66  84  67  87 /  60  40  40  30
AVL   63  82  63  84 /  60  40  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERD...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-132000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

138 PM     2 S FRANKLIN              NC   .88 INCH HAIL
07/13/03   MACON                          SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL
                                          SIZED HAIL ACCUMULATING
                                          ON DECK. ESTIMATED WIND
                                          GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

128 PM     5 SE MONROE               NC   FLOODING
07/13/03   UNION                          UNION EOC REPORTED HWY
                                          601 SOUTH COVERED BY 6 TO
                                          8 INCHES OF FLOWING
                                          WATER...MAY BE CLOSED
                                          SOON.

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

304 PM     4 NE SIX MILE             SC   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/13/03   PICKENS                        SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF
                                          BALL SIZE HAIL AND TREES
                                          BENT TOTALLY OVER BY
                                          WIND.

248 PM     PICKENS                   SC   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/03   PICKENS                        EOC REPORTED WIND DAMAGE
                                          OF UNKNOWN EXTENT IN MILE
                                          CREEK TRAILER PARK.

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

323 PM     LIBERTY                   SC   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/03   PICKENS                        TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN IN LIBERTY AND
                                          .75 TO 1.0 INCH HAIL.

325 PM     LIBERTY                   SC   .75 INCH HAIL
07/13/03   PICKENS                        HAM REPORT.

JRL