Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING FROM THE L90S OVER M70S DWPTS EAST OF THE
MTNS...NATURALLY LESSER AMOUNTS WEST. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES
GENERALLY 2700-3000 J/KG EAST TO 1400-2000 J/KG WEST. ATTENTION
GIVEN TO LARGE CONVECTIVE LINE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...MOVEMENT AS
BEEN ESE. CORFIDI VECTORS PRESENTLY SE...BY 6Z GFS/NOGAPS SO VECTORS
MORE OUT OF THE WSW. WILL EXPECT LINE TO INVADE THE NRN
MTNS...FTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT BEFORE FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
AS SLOW MOVING TS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME
CONCERNING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED. WILL ISSUE SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF SLOW MOVING TS AND TRAINING OVER THE NORN TIER
THIS EVENING.

THROUGH THURSDAY MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE FA...WITH AMP TROF AND
INSTABILITY RUNNING HIGH WILL EXPECT IMPROVING COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. POPS WILL TREND FROM LIKELY MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. AS FRONT AND
UPPER SUPPORT SWEEP ACROSS THE FA THURS NIGHT WILL PEAK POPS THURS
NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS. ETA/MM5 SHOW FRONT BREAK UP A
LITTLE WITH THE PASSAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FRONT WILL
SHARPEN AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO HIGH CHC FOR
NOW...BUT LIKELY COVERAGE MAY BE NEED AND FROPA TIMING AND STRENGTH
COME BETTER INTO VIEW. WILL TREND POP AND WX OUT OF FA FRI AND FRONT
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD A LONG WAVE TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST...IN BETWEEN DESERT SW AND ATLANTIC H5
HIGHS. AFTER INITIAL DRY SATURDAY...AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CARRY DIURNAL SH/TS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH FAVOR GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CLIMO MEX/HPC TEMPS.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   71  89  69  87 /  40  40  50  50
AND   71  88  69  88 /  40  50  50  50
CLT   72  90  70  88 /  40  40  50  50
HKY   70  87  69  83 /  60  40  50  50
AVL   66  84  66  80 /  50  60  60  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER
90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NCZ033>037-048>059-062>065-092300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED ONE TO AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MAINLY JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF ASHEVILLE NEAR INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT.

A SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BEFORE
SUNSET.

RESIDENTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF DEVELOPING WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCH FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
FLOODING IF PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT YOUR LOCATION. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

TRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

345 PM     3 E HEPCO                 NC   FLASH FLOOD
07/09/03   HAYWOOD                        COUNTY SHERIFF  REPORTED
                                          FINES CREEK AND WESLEY
                                          CREEK OUT OF THEIR
                                          BANKS...CAUSING MINOR
                                          ROAD FLOODING.

LAMB