Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

LAPS ANALYSIS OF CAPE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 4000 J/KG OR GREATER
CAPE OVER NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. STORMS ARE RATHER SLOW...WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN A GIVEN. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH. UPSTREAM...MCS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER MS AN AL...THICKNESSES WOULD LEAD STORMS TO THE FA
TONIGHT IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. I BELIEVE THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE AS MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC OVER
THE MTNS AND SOLID CHC ELSEWHERE...MAY MAKE LAST SECOND DECISION.
THURSDAY...LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH FA STILL IN UNSTABLE
TROPICAL AIR MASS. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND FA STILL IN THE PATH
OF POTENTIAL MCS WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC EVERYWHERE AND WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHC POPS.

EXTENDED MDLS IN FLUX WITH FCST POSITION OF SFC FNT STARTING OUT TO
OUR NORTH. PREV CONSENSUS WAS FNT TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOW THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FNT MAY SLIP DOWN
AS EARLY AS SUN NITE. HOWEVER MDLS DO SHOW CONSENSUS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH WITH SOME CONVERGENCE H85. SO EVEN IF FNT
MOVES SOUTH EXPECT PRECIP CHC TO CONTINUE. BUT GIVEN MDL UNCERTAINTY
FNT COULD BE STALLED OVER US OR EVEN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE POP THRU DAY 7 WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

FCSTID = 16
GSP 069 085 068 086 / 4555
AND 070 086 068 086 / 4555
CLT 069 086 070 086 / 4545
HKY 068 084 067 083 / 4555
AVL 064 080 064 080 / 4555

NED/RWH

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-111215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. PLEASE SEE
CAESPSGSP FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LANE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-112000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING TO AN EXTENT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS A
RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS INDICATES THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH
HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ISOLATED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

NED