Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KGSP 88D TRENDS THROUGH ZFP ISSUANCE TIME
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHETHER ITS IN THE HIGHER CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NE GA...IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE WHERE ETA
HAS PROGGED LLVL CONVERGENCE MAX...OR JUST MOVING INTO THE NC MTNS
FROM DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE TENN VALLEY. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN
CHC POPS FOR TSTMS ALL AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...EVEN
WITH LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER RH AND WEAK VORT AXIS ROTATES EAST
INTO THE CWFA.

ON SATURDAY...STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO APRCH THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH
AS HYBRID DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPS. PLAN ON CONFINING TSTM CHCS ALONG
PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING SFC WEDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG ETA DEPICTION OF
POSITIVE CAPE AREA AND SPC DAY 2 GNRL RISK. STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
...CWFA TO REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT CAD WITH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
...MAINLY FROM SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE FLOW ABOVE WEDGE LAYER...ACRS
SW ZONES...HENCE BEST POPS...WITH AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE HIGH CHC
RANGE AND HIGHEST QPF IN THIS AREA. PROBABLY WILL SEE DAMMING
REGIME CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APRCHS ON
WEDNESDAY WHERE CHC OF THUNDER REMAINS. PATTERN LOOKS LESS AMPLIFIED
THAN WHAT OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR DAYS 6-7...AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MAY WIND UP JUST LAYING OVER ACRS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   61  75  59  70 /  40  60  50  50
AND   61  75  59  70 /  40  60  50  50
CLT   60  72  57  68 /  40  50  50  50
HKY   59  71  55  65 /  40  50  50  50
AVL   57  70  56  68 /  40  60  50  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-162000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1152 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA...A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

615 PM     3 N SALISBURY             NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   ROWAN                          STORM SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          DIME TO QUARTER SIZED
                                          HAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 630
                                          PM.

OUTLAW/LANE