Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 15, 2003Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 8:15 PM EDT for Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 9:00 PM EDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Mecklenburg County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 15, 4:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 51 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 791 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KGSP 160015
SVRGSP
NCC119-160100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 812 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST     
  AT 15 MPH. 

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MATTHEWS AT 830 PM EDT.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. 
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM...BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3529 8081 3516 8097 3499 8078 3512 8060

$$

LANE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

UPDATE-

ZFP UPDATED TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH INFORMATION UNTIL 10 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST TSTM CVRG THIS
EVENING ACRS MY NC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE SUPPORTING
S/WVS. LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPE VALUES APRCHG 2000 J/KG
ACRS WRN NC...AND COMBINED WITH SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS...MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LVL FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40 KTS...ALL AIDED BY THIS AREA COMING UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 105KT 250 MB JET...SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ATTM...PLAN ON EVENING POPS OF SCATTERED 50 CVRG FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER AND CHC 30 FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2. WILL KEEP CHCS GOING THRU
MIDNIGHT UNTIL LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION OCCURS AND LIFT FROM
WAVE OVER KY/TN SHIFTS EAST OF CWFA.

CWFA TO COME UNDER A BROAD AND DEEP...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WSW FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC FRONT...WHICH IS APRCHG FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...SAGS INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED...BUT AS SOME DEEPER RH CREEPS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO AREA...AND THE UPGLIDE FLOW INCREASES SOME...
HAVE GONE WITH 30 POP FRIDAY NIGHT...UP FROM SILENT 20 POP DURING
THE DAY. CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK WITH FLOW
AND MOISTURE INCREASING RESPECTIVELY AS LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS
TO BE FLOATING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY LEADING TOWARD SYNOPTIC SOLUTION OF
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP CAD EVENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWFA SUN-TUE.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...HANDLING OF APRCHG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
EVEN LESS CERTAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PCPN CVRG
ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS JUNCTURE PREFER TO FAVOR A WETTER AND STABLE
SOLUTION THIS PERIOD...BUT IT GENERALLY SHAKES OUT TO JUST CHC POPS
EACH DAY. FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...STILL ON TRACK FOR A SCOURING
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
DRY DAY 7.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
AND   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
CLT   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
HKY   58  81  60  74 /  50  20  30  30
AVL   56  78  58  71 /  40  20  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 6:03 AM EDT, 14 hours 12 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS MORNING...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
IF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVES ENOUGH SUN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE MORNING SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG...OR EVEN
SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SEE
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR OFFICE...PRODUCT PIL
CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE DETAILED LOCALIZED INFORMATION ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS
ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH LATEST CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
FOR POTENTIAL NET ACTIVATION.

BURRUS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 7:19 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

550 PM     BAT CAVE                  NC   1.50 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   HENDERSON                      REPORTED BY AREA BED AND
                                          BREAKFAST.

NED

Local storm report, May 15, 7:21 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

720 PM     MT. HOLLY                 NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GASTON                         REPORTED OVER SKYWARN NET

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 7:29 PM EDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

727 PM     MT. HOLLY                 NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GASTON                         GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY DUKE ENERGY
                                          METEOROLOGIST

635 PM     10 NE COLUMBUS            NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   POLK                           STRONG WINDS ALSO
                                          REPORTED...REPORTED BY
                                          POLK COUNTY
                                          COMMUNICATIONS

723 PM     MORRESVILLE               NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   IREDELL                        PENNY HAIL REPORTED ALONG
                                          INTERSTATE 77 BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 7:35 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

715 PM     STECOAH                   NC   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GRAHAM                         REPORTED BY COUNTY EOC

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 7:39 PM EDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

730 PM     BELMONT                   NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GASTON                         SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AT
                                          BELMONT YMCA

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 7:54 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

745 PM     CHARLOTTE                 NC   .88 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MECKLENBURG                    NICKLE HAIL AT LITTLE
                                          ROCK ROAD AND BILLY
                                          GRAHAM BLVD

750 PM     2 N CLT                   NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MECKLENBURG                    HIGH WINDS AND NUMEROUS
                                          POWER OUTAGES ALSO
                                          REPORTED IN AREA

RBN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 8:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	45 min
May 15, 8:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Union	62 min
May 15, 8:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.