Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LINE OF INSTABILITY IS
SURGING BACK NORTHEAST...THRU TN AND GA. MCS/TSTMS FIRING ALONG THE
TMB AND STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING BACK INTO CWA FROM THE W. ON TOP
OF THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY
OVER W ZONES AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY. MODELS
INCREASE CAPE TO ABOVE 2000 BY THIS AFTN WITH DEEP ASCENT INDICATED.
EXPECT A CHANCE POP CONTINUING MUCH OF WEEK. NOT PLANNING ANY
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 77
GSP   80  62  83  62 /  70  40  30  30
AND   81  61  83  63 /  70  40  30  30
CLT   81  62  84  63 /  70  40  30  30
HKY   78  61  82  60 /  70  40  30  30
AVL   76  57  78  59 /  80  50  30  30

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...
GAZ028>029.

NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NCZ048...NCZ051>053...
NCZ058>059...NCZ062>067.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SCZ001>007...SCZ010>012...
SCZ019.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO BE A SERIOUS CONCERN ...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MAY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-071500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ONE OR TWO LARGE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...ONE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER STORM SYSTEMS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER...AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE WITHIN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY AT
JUST ABOUT ANYTIME TODAY. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

LANE

GAZ010-017-018-070815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE BACK
INTO RABUN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN 4 AND 430 THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
50 MPH. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO 3
INCHES...IF THE STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN IN THE MEANTIME.

IF THIS MUCH RAINFALL IS REALIZED AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
RABUN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO THE WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD
TOPPLE TREES ANCHORED IN THE SATURATED GROUND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS  WEATHER
SITUATION AS THE STORMS MOVE IN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RBN

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-070945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.  AT 535 AM...RADAR SHOWED
STRONG STORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FROM THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF WALHALLA AND PICKENS...EXTENDING SOUTH TO ANDERSON...AND THEN TO
WEST OF CARNESVILLE GEORGIA.  THE STRONGEST STORM WAS WEST OF
CARNESVILLE...MOVING EAST TOWARD HARTWELL AND ANDERSON.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  ALSO...THE
STORMS BETWEEN CARNESVILLE AND ANDERSON COULD REPEAT OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR A WHILE...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP.  A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING COULD
BECOME NECESSARY IF THE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES MUCH LONGER.

JONES