Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 310502
FFSGSP
NCC179-310600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR UNION COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 
115 AM EDT...

UNION COUNTY 911 REPORTED THAT WATER STILL COVERED PLYLER MILL 
ROAD...BUFORD SHORT CUT ROAD AND GRIFFITH ROAD SOUTH OF MONROE...
BUT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
COUNTY...AND LINGERING SHOWERS WERE DISSIPATING AS WELL.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS...WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT LINGERING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF MONROE...WHERE DOPPLER
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. USE CAUTION IN OR NEAR ANY SMALL 
CREEK TONIGHT...AND AVOID ROUTES THAT YOU KNOW ARE FLOOD PRONE.

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS BRIDGES WHICH ARE UNDER WATER. ROADS AT THE ENDS
OF THE BRIDGE MAY WASH OUT OR WEAKEN...AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY FALL INTO
THE RAGING CURRENT. DO NOT RISK YOUR LIFE. BACK UP AND GO ANOTHER
WAY.

$$

55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 KT SELY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
ATTM...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND AROUND 2000 J/KG FEEDING INTO THIS
AREA AS WELL. TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK OUT OF THE WEST...AROUND 10
KTS...RESULTING IN CELLS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS THAT ARE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE THIS AFTN. PW/S ARE AROUND 1.90 THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MORNING RAOBS SHOW QUITE A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE
MTNS. THIS WEAK DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HELP
STRENGTHEN OUTFLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN INTO THE WRN
FOOTHILLS. WORKING ON THAT ASSUMPTION...HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SRN NC MTNS...THE FAR SW NC FOOTHILLS...NRN UPSTATE AND
PARTS OF NE GA. FFW ALREADY OUT FOR RABUN COUNTY.

FARTHER TO THE NE...LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED HEATING UNDER
THE SRN EXTENSION OF WEAK WEDGE RIDGE HAS LIMITED PCPN TO ONLY A
FEW LGT SHRA. MODELS LIFT A WEAK TMB N OVERNGHT. HAVE THE LOWEST
POPS IN THE NE ZONES...BUT EXPECT THAT THEY WL EVENTUALLY SEE
SOMETHING AS THE TMB RETREATS.

TO MAKE LIFE EVEN MORE INTERESTING...BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SIG PCPN
IN THE SW NC MTNS LATE TNGT IN THE FACE OF WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WE AND MRX SEEM TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THIS...AND HAVE
GONE LIKELY POPS LATE TNGT IN THE FAR SW MTNS. IF THIS PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...THIS WL BE ANOTHER AREA THAT WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE ETA...GFS AND FWC POPS ARE ALL IN THE LIKELY RANGE THU. PW/S ARE
NEAR 2 INCHES. FORCING IS WEAK...THOUGH PVA DOES INCREASE IN THE
LATE AFTN. LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY IN THE AFTN...THOUGH FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE STILL SHOWS A BACKING TENDENCY. IN DEFERENCE TO
THE HIGH POPS AND PROBABLY CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE...WENT WITH A
LIKELY POP AGAIN TMRW AFTN AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MORE CONVECTION FRIDAY AS A BETTER SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN ZONES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SAT...ONLY WITH STRONGER SHEAR.
COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IF THE GFS VERIFIES ON
SAT.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   70  86  71  86 /  60  60  60  50
AND   71  88  72  87 /  60  60  60  40
CLT   70  86  71  87 /  60  60  60  50
HKY   68  83  69  84 /  40  60  60  50
AVL   66  82  67  82 /  50  60  60  40

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES GAZ010...GAZ017>018.

NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES NCZ063>067.

SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES SCZ001>007.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RB