Flash Flood Warning 92, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 310349
FFSGSP
SCC077-310445-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1139 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PICKENS COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1138 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS EASTERN PICKENS COUNTY. DOPPLER
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES THAT A SWATH OF TWO AND ONE HALF TO THREE 
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER THIS EVENING FROM AROUND EASLEY AND
EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 123. 

EASLEY POLICE REPORTED THAT A FEW ROADS WERE CLOSED IN TOWN 
EARLIER...BUT NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT. 
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...IT IS PROBABLE THAT NO NEW FLOODING WILL 
DEVELOP...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 1245 AM EDT. 

GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...IT IS LIKELY THAT LINGERING AREAS 
OF HIGH WATER EXIST...SO BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS 
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. USE 
CAUTION IN OR NEAR ANY SMALL CREEK TONIGHT...AND AVOID ROUTES THAT 
YOU KNOW ARE FLOOD PRONE.

$$

55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 KT SELY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
ATTM...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND AROUND 2000 J/KG FEEDING INTO THIS
AREA AS WELL. TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK OUT OF THE WEST...AROUND 10
KTS...RESULTING IN CELLS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS THAT ARE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE THIS AFTN. PW/S ARE AROUND 1.90 THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MORNING RAOBS SHOW QUITE A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE
MTNS. THIS WEAK DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HELP
STRENGTHEN OUTFLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN INTO THE WRN
FOOTHILLS. WORKING ON THAT ASSUMPTION...HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SRN NC MTNS...THE FAR SW NC FOOTHILLS...NRN UPSTATE AND
PARTS OF NE GA. FFW ALREADY OUT FOR RABUN COUNTY.

FARTHER TO THE NE...LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED HEATING UNDER
THE SRN EXTENSION OF WEAK WEDGE RIDGE HAS LIMITED PCPN TO ONLY A
FEW LGT SHRA. MODELS LIFT A WEAK TMB N OVERNGHT. HAVE THE LOWEST
POPS IN THE NE ZONES...BUT EXPECT THAT THEY WL EVENTUALLY SEE
SOMETHING AS THE TMB RETREATS.

TO MAKE LIFE EVEN MORE INTERESTING...BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SIG PCPN
IN THE SW NC MTNS LATE TNGT IN THE FACE OF WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WE AND MRX SEEM TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THIS...AND HAVE
GONE LIKELY POPS LATE TNGT IN THE FAR SW MTNS. IF THIS PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...THIS WL BE ANOTHER AREA THAT WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE ETA...GFS AND FWC POPS ARE ALL IN THE LIKELY RANGE THU. PW/S ARE
NEAR 2 INCHES. FORCING IS WEAK...THOUGH PVA DOES INCREASE IN THE
LATE AFTN. LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY IN THE AFTN...THOUGH FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE STILL SHOWS A BACKING TENDENCY. IN DEFERENCE TO
THE HIGH POPS AND PROBABLY CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE...WENT WITH A
LIKELY POP AGAIN TMRW AFTN AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MORE CONVECTION FRIDAY AS A BETTER SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN ZONES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SAT...ONLY WITH STRONGER SHEAR.
COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IF THE GFS VERIFIES ON
SAT.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   70  86  71  86 /  60  60  60  50
AND   71  88  72  87 /  60  60  60  40
CLT   70  86  71  87 /  60  60  60  50
HKY   68  83  69  84 /  40  60  60  50
AVL   66  82  67  82 /  50  60  60  40

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES GAZ010...GAZ017>018.

NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES NCZ063>067.

SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES SCZ001>007.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RB