Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 171042
FFSGSP
NCC071-SCC091-171130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 730 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEAST 
GASTON AND NORTHEAST YORK COUNTIES...

AT 631 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT RAINFALL 
HAD ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN 
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 3 AM ALONG 
THE GASTON AND YORK COUNTY LINE SOUTHEAST OF GASTONIA. RUNOFF FROM 
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FLOODING 
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ALONG CROWDERS CREEK...MILL CREEK...AND 
SMALL TRIBUTARIES OF CATAWBA CREEK. SOME ROADS MAY BE COVERED WITH 
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER 
LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. 
   
DO NOT BECOME A FATALITY DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS...THE ROAD COULD
BE WASHED OUT FROM THE FLOW OF THE WATER...AND YOUR CAR COULD BE
SWEPT AWAY BY THE SWIFTLY MOVING WATER.

$$

LANE

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 171140
FFSGSP
NCC071-SCC091-171150-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GASTON 
AND NORTHEAST YORK COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED AS OF 730 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA AND NO REPORTS OF 
FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HOWEVER...SOME ROADWAYS STILL MAY BE 
COVERED WITH WATERIN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS  
ARE ADVISED TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

$$

LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CLT/MECKLENBURG WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH AFTER ALL. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POP FOR
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH INITIAL WARMUP IN MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER...CLOUD DEBRIS AND SLIGHTLY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
KEEP NEW CONVECTION FROM FIRING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. THE INTERESTING FACET OF THIS SCENARIO IS THAT
ETA DEVELOPS CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SPITE OF WARM NOSE...AND SHOWS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY TO DROP SFC-700 MB DELTA
THETA-E TO BETTER THAN 30...SO ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THINK IT BEST TO KEEP POP AT LEAST
30 PERCENT IN SPITE OF LOWER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE APPARENT MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE MORE OF THE SAME...BUT WITH PERHAPS MORE
UPPER FORCING TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION. THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE LARGE WESTERN UPPER/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND
THE EASTERN TROF... AND THUS AT THE END OF THE LINE FOR ANY MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY. THE ETA
SHOWS THE REMNANT OF ONE SUCH MCS MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY. EVEN IF THE
TIMING IS LATE...THE AIR MASS IS UNCHANGED AND IN MY MIND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF GUIDANCE POP IS LOW.

UNFORTUNATELY...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE GFS IS PLAGUED BY
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK AND SHOWS A SPURIOUS LOOKING SFC LOW MOVING IN
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CASTS SOME SERIOUS DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION.
NEVERTHELESS...IF THE ETA IS REASONABLY CLOSE...CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST ALL NIGHT WITH FORCING MOVING IN WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SHOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THAT DAY. WILL TREND DOWN A BIT ON TEMPS...BUT NOT READY
TO DROP THEM TWO CATEGORIES AS SUGGESTED BY MAV GUIDANCE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY UNCHANGED.

FCSTID =   10
GSP   90  69  89  70 /  30  30  40  40
AND   90  69  90  69 /  30  30  40  40
CLT   89  69  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
HKY   87  67  88  68 /  30  30  40  40
AVL   86  65  86  66 /  20  20  40  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...OR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP) ISSUED AT 410
AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EVERY DAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON ANY GIVEN
DAY...ONE OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-171500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

LANE