Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 221057
FFSGSP
NCC173-221230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 830 AM EDT FOR WESTERN SWAIN
COUNTY...

RAIN HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER WESTERN SWAIN COUNTY. RUNOFF 
FROM EARLIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE...CAUSING STREAMS AND CREEKS TO 
RISE FURTHER.

PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY CAMPERS...SHOULD MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND NOW...DO NOT DELAY. WATER MAY RISE TOO QUICKLY FOR YOU
TO GET OUT OF DANGER LATER.

$$
07

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 221235
FFSGSP
NCC173-221330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SWAIN COUNTY 
HAS EXPIRED AS OF 830 AM EDT...

AT 830 AM...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS OVER WESTERN 
SWAIN COUNTY. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAD MOVED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF 
SWAIN COUNTY. NO FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED FROM THE AREA FOR WHICH 
THE WARNING WAS IN EFFECT...AND THUS FAR...NO FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED FROM OTHER PARTS OF SWAIN COUNTY.

DURING THE MORNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SWAIN COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN 
COULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST ALSO. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL 
CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND COULD ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS AGAIN 
IF FLOODING IS REPORTED OR APPEARS IMMINENT.

DO NOT BECOME A FATALITY DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS...THE ROAD COULD
BE WASHED OUT FROM THE FLOW OF THE WATER...AND YOUR CAR COULD BE
SWEPT AWAY BY THE SWIFTLY MOVING WATER.

$$
BURRUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2003

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM RWI TO CAE AND
MCN. IN OTHER WORDS...JUST S OF THE CWA. WEAK CAD IS TRYING TO WORK
INTO THE NRN MOST ZONES ATTM. MSAS SHOWS PRESSURE RISES ON THE E
SIDE OF THE MTNS AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER TN AND KY WHERE INVERTED
TROF IS DEVELOPING UNDER AND AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE BROAD LONG WAVE OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY
SETTLING SOUTH...WITH ONE RATHER WELL DEFINE SHORT WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET WL SIT OVER
THE REGION TDA. THE JET SHIFTS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TNGT AND FRI AS THAT SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION...W/RESULTANT SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG TMB...NEAR THE COAST. IT WL BE A CLOSE CALL ON
HEAVY RAIN LATE TNGT AND FRI...BUT HEAVY PCPN WL DEFINITELY OCCUR
OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TDA... PARTICULARLY THE FOOTHILLS
AND ERN SLOPES WHERE ETA HAS GOOD LLVL AGEO FLOW DEVELOPING. IN
FACT...HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY FILLING IN ACROSS THE CWFA. THE LLVL
ADJUSTMENT ON THE ETA TAKES THE SFC WINDS SE...EVEN THOUGH THE
PRESSURES ARE HIGHER ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. THAT IS AN INTERESTING
SIGNAL...BUT WL KEEP WINDS NE AS THE CAD SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE
OTHER LLVL ADJUSTMENTS.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE JUST N OF THE SFC
BNDRY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN...AND WL KEEP THE FFA FOR TDA
AND TNGT. NOT AS IMPRESSED W/THE FORCING OVERNIGHT AS THE
CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WL PROBABLY RESULT IN DIMINISHED UPSLOPE AS
DEEP LAYER NE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE NW QUAD OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT WATCH RUNS THROUGH TNGT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LLVL
FORCING COULD KEEP PCPN AROUND INTO THE EVENING...SO WL KEEP THE FFA
UP THROUGH TNGT.

LATER TNGT AND FRI MODELS TAKE THE LOW OVER THE SC LOW
COUNTY...W/ATTENDANT AREA UP UPGLIDE INDUCED PCPN MOST LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MIDLANDS AND POINTS EAST. GFS IS STILL FASTER...BUT
BOTH MODELS KEEP US OUT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN. CURRENT PCPN
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA -- LIKELY ERN ZONES TO LOW CHANCE POPS FAR W
-- LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/OTHER OFFICES.

EXTENDED...SURFACE RIDGE OVER AREA SUN WITH FRONT STALLED TO S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES AREA MON...MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY
TUE...AND STALLING TO S ON WED. MODELS TRY TO HOLD MARGINAL MOISTURE
OVER AREA MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO TRY TO
CONSOLIDATE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EPISODES TO MINIMIZE
FLUCTUATIONS...THOUGH THAT IS WHAT MAY OCCUR IF MODEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING MECHANISMS VERIFY. LITTLE CHANGE TO SKY/WIND/TEMPS.

THANKS TO CHS FOR ORGANIZING THE HYDRO CONFERENCE CALL THIS MORNING.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   67  59  71  57 / 100  70  50  20
AND   65  58  73  56 / 100  70  40  20
CLT   66  60  69  58 / 100  70  60  20
HKY   63  57  67  55 / 100  70  50  30
AVL   66  56  68  53 / 100  70  30  20

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES GAZ010...
GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028>029.

NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033>037...
NCZ048>059...NCZ062>072...NCZ082.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES SCZ001>014...SCZ019.

MCAVOY/07

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-211145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SEE OUR PRODUCT CAEESFGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MCAVOY