Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 230921
FFSGSP
NCC121-231000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 AM EDT FOR NORTHERN 
MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 515 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 4 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY OVER THE PAST TWO 
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD SHIFTED SOUTH TO BETWEEN BAKERSVILLE 
AND BANDANA...THOUGH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WAS DEVELOPING OVER 
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF 
MITCHELL COUNTY BEFORE 6 AM.

SO FAR NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HOWEVER...THE 
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING STILL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG ROCK 
CREEK BASIN...WHERE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN. MOTORISTS 
TRAVELING ALONG STATE ROUTE 226 SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HIGH WATER AND 
MUD SLIDES.  

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING MILES DOWNSTREAM.

$$
MCAVOY

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 231007
FFSGSP
NCC121-231030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR NORTHERN MITCHELL 
COUNTY AS OF 6 AM EDT...

AT 6 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT ONLY LIGHT RAIN 
WAS FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF MITCHELL COUNTY. THE COUNTY 
COMMUNICATIONS CENTER REPORTED THAT SPRING CREEK...IN THE FAR 
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY...DID COME OUT OF ITS BANKS...THOUGH IT 
DID NOT FLOOD ANY ROADS.

SINCE NO OTHER REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...AND THE 
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...HIGH WATER LIKELY REMAINS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MITCHELL 
COUNTY. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ROCK AND MUD SLIDES AND 
WASHOUTS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING OR WASHED OUT ROADS TO YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT CENTER FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST TIER OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...WILL BLANKET NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
WITH LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
IN WEAK CONVERGENT AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...HELPED ALONG
BY OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR ALL AREAS FOR AFTERNOON...50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND 40S
SOUTHERN TIER. UPPER FORCING IS NOT GREAT FOR CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
ETA AND GFS DO HAVE A WEAKENING VORT DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
ABOVE A STILL RATHER MOIST LOWER LAYER CREATES THETA-E LAPSES IN THE
35 TO 40 K RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING A WEAK
CAP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THIS CAP IS NOT PRESENT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18Z VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH WOULD THINK FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME. GIVEN COVERAGE
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CWFA ON FRIDAY...AND BETTER FORCING FOR
CONVECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TODAY AS OPPOSED TO LEE
TROF THAT ACTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ALL THE CWFA AGAIN TODAY.

MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE CAROLINA BORDER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL KEEP MENTION OF EVENING POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES...GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SOUTH BUT REMOVE
FROM ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEN...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A FANTASTIC END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MADE
NO CHANGES TO DEWPOINT GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS SET...IMPLYING THAT EVEN
THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE A DAY OR TWO OF LOWER
DEWPOINTS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT THAT IS PROGD TO COME IN BY MIDWEEK.

FCSTID = 44

GSP 91 70 86 66 / 40 20 10 10
AND 91 71 88 67 / 40 30 10 10
CLT 90 68 86 65 / 40 20 10 10
HKY 89 65 84 62 / 40 20 10 10
AVL 84 63 83 60 / 50 20 10 10

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UNDER PRODUCT
LABEL CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING THE
SATURDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BURRUS

NCZ049-050-230845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AFFECTING MITCHELL
COUNTY...

AT 343 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...NEAR THE TOWN OF
BULADEAN. THE STORM WAS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AS
IT MOVES INTO BAKERSVILLE BY 4 AM.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE SAME PARTS OF NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY AFFECTED BY
THE FIRST STORM. IF THIS HAPPENS...EVEN GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
RESULT...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MCAVOY