Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

July 13, 2003Isabella County, Mecosta County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2003, 4:00 PM EDT for Isabella County, Mecosta County, Michigan. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2003, 4:00 PM EDT (20:00 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2003, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Isabella County, MI, Mecosta County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1789 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

559 
WUUS53 KGRR 132000
SVRGRR
MIC073-107-132100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
  MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MECOSTA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES EAST OF BIG
  RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   WEIDMAN AROUND 440 PM EDT
   BEAL CITY AROUND 455 PM EDT
   MOUNT PLEASANT...ROSEBUSH AROUND 455 PM EDT

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF A QUARTER...
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED.


LAT...LON 4373 8537 4355 8543 4350 8472 4372 8470

$$

JK DB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 10:22 AM EDT, 5 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 10:22 AM EDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

AT 14Z VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR CWA. SKIES ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER INLAND THE ETA CU SCHEME
INDICATES A CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL PUSH THE CU FIELD SLOWLY EAST LATE THIS AFTN. WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WE
BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
FALLING APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERES EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL SINCE FREEZING LEVELS ARE
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 9 KFT.

TEMPS AT 14Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA AND OUR GOING
MAX TEMP FCST FEATURING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOKS GREAT.

WELL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY JUST TO FRESHEN UP WORDING FOR
THIS AFTN.

LAURENS

.GRR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 6:30 AM EDT, 9 hours 30 minutes before

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE
IN SPOTS BEFORE DISSIPATING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH PEA SIZED
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NECESSARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MEADE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 3:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clare, Osceola	25 min
Jul 13, 3:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Mecosta	34 min
Jul 13, 3:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clare	30 min
Jul 13, 4:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Montcalm	41 min
Jul 13, 5:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Isabella, Mecosta	30 min
Jul 13, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Montcalm	28 min
Jul 13, 5:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Montcalm	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.