Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

July 8, 2003Van Buren County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2003, 1:09 AM EDT for Van Buren County, Michigan. It was in force for 66 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2003, 1:09 AM EDT (05:09 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2003, 2:15 AM EDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Van Buren County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 987 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1213 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGRR 080509
SVRGRR
MIC159-080615-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
109 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 105 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVERT TO
  19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTFORD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   COVERT AROUND 115 AM EDT
   MCDONALD...HARTFORD AROUND 125 AM EDT
   BANGOR AROUND 130 AM EDT
   LAWRENCE...BREEDSVILLE AROUND 135 AM EDT
   GLENDALE AROUND 140 AM EDT
   PAW PAW...BLOOMINGDALE AROUND 145 AM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.


LAT...LON 4240 8627 4229 8632 4227 8621 4211 8617
          4211 8579 4240 8581

$$

MEADE RG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 9:51 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 9:51 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

AM LEANING TOWARD REMOVING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA TONIGHT...OR AT LEAST LOWERING THE 40 POP TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PCT). ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN FAVORING THE AREA FROM IOWA TO NRN OHIO WHERE
BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS.

ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OVER ERN WI AND WILL BE
COMING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE
EXISTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG IT YET
(WITH EXCEPTION OF FARTHER NORTH OVER ERN UPR MI). DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID TO UPPER 70S TO
THE SOUTH. BELIEVE MCS COMING EAST FROM NRN ILLINOIS WILL RIDE THE
DEW POINT GRADIENT ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER... POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE A 30-40 POP GOING THERE... AND
UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT LATEST SPC SWODY1.

LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD DRIVE THE DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT...WITH MUCH OF THE NW CWFA
AROUND OR BELOW 60F BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME ARE A LITTLE
CONCERNING SINCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST. WILL WAIT FOR NEW 00Z
GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES THAT FAR OUT.

MEADE

.GRR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 10:14 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-081000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE AREAS FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO BATTLE CREEK TO JACKSON. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NECESSARY ON TUESDAY.

JK MWH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 12:19 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		41 min
Jul 8, 12:19 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		41 min
Jul 8, 12:19 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		41 min
Jul 8, 12:58 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		62 min
Jul 8, 12:58 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		62 min
Jul 8, 2:52 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun	38 min
Jul 8, 11:03 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		57 min
Jul 8, 11:03 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		57 min
Jul 8, 11:03 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		57 min
Jul 8, 11:03 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		57 min
Jul 8, 1:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Jackson	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.