Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
515 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2003

LAKE BREEZE IS NOW TOUCHING OFF ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY AS YOU MOVE INTO
THE WATCH AREA...WHERE LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE
LOWER THAN -6 DEG C  BASED UPON THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
OF THESE STORMS...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LOW BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.  THE
ETA  HAS TRENDED TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THUS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.GRR...NONE.

MJS

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
541 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS
OF OVER 60 MPH REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.  TORRENTIAL
RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST
STORMS OCCUR.  ALSO...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT.

A LAKE BREEZE ALONG HIGHWAY 131 WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE EVENING.  THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
BEGINNING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN A VERY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR HAIL
TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING

MJS

MIZ051-052-057>059-012015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA AND CLINTON

MJS

MIZ064>067-071>074-020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME IN HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WATCH REPLACES THE OLD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO AND VAN BUREN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS MWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
0440 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0437 PM    SCHOOLCRAFT               MI   0.75 IN HAIL
08/01/03   KALAMAZOO                      HAIL FELL IN SCHOOLCRAFT
                                          AND VICKSBURG

MJK

MIZ064>067-071>074-020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME IN HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WATCH REPLACES THE OLD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO AND VAN BUREN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS MWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
0850 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    PAW PAW                   MI   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   VAN BUREN                      MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

MWH