Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

FCST CONCERNS WL CENTER MAINLY ON SHORT-TERM WITH SVR WEATHER UNDERWAY
AND WINTRY MIX COMING WED INTO THU.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CDFNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM OEO-
RRL-GRB. CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS AS 80+
TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FNT CLASH WITH 50 DEGREE TEMPS NORTH OF THE FNT.
UNSTABLE ATM WITH LIS AROUND -5...CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. WET-BULB HGTS DROPPING IN THE COOLER AIR MAKING
HAIL THE MAIN PBLM.

VERY COMPLICATED FCST TNGT AS FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THRU WI.
EFFECTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FNT THRU REST OF THE FCST AREA THIS
EVENING. SCT CONVECTION VNCTY OF THE FNT SHOULD CONT THRU THE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. STILL APRS THE FAR NORTH WL COOL OFF ENUF
LTR TNGT TO ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX WITH THE RAIN. WL KEEP BLUSTERY
WORDING GOING AS LRG ANTICYCLONE IN CANADA AND STRENGTHENING STORM OVR
THE CNTRL PLAINS TIGHTENS UP THE PRES GRAD.

NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED STORM PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO MO ON WED EVEN AS
HI PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY ON TAP ESP ALONG
THE LK WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PCPN TYPE AND AMTS THE MAJOR
DILEMA HERE. AS SHALLOW COOL AIR CONTS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...
FCST SNDNGS INDICATE SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND RAIN MIXING WITH...AND
CHANGING TO SLEET IN THE SOUTH. AMTS TO BE THE KEY HERE WITH ETAS QPF
MAXS FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NGM/GFS. AFTER COORD WITH MPX AND
MQT...WL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NRN WI NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE FOR WED. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION BUT THERE ARE ENUF NEGATIVES ATTM TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVY.
FIRST...CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH ON WED MAY IMPEDE MSTR FROM REACHING
INTO NRN WI. SECOND...DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH FROM CANADA.

THE WINTERY MIX TO CONT WED NGT ESP OVR THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. NRN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE PCPN BECOME MORE SCT AS DRY AIR DOES MAKE
SOME PROGRESS SWD. THE PCPN CHCS CONT INTO THU AS UPR LOW WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NE THRU THE RGN. WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS OVR SRN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TO HAVE PCPN FALL AS ALL LIQUID. NRN SECTIONS
TO SEE A CONTINUED MIX.

INTO THE EXTENDED...MDLS AGREE ON BROAD TROF FCST TO MOV INTO THE CNTRL
U.S. ON SAT. GFS STILL THE FASTEST IN MOVG THE TROF EAST AND MAY BE
UNDERPLAYING THE STRENGTH OF AN UPR RDG ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL
PREFER THE SLOWER SOLN OF THE CANADIAN/UKMET. THAT BEING SAID...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WNDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL GULF MSTR NWD AND OVERRUN NWD MOVG
WRMFNT TO KICK OFF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHWRS OR TSTMS. SUNDAYS WEATHER TO
BE DICTATED BY EVENTUAL PATH OF SFC LOW. MDLS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLNS
THUS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN TYPE. WL CONT TREND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH.

COORD WITH MPX AND MQT. THANKS.

.GRB...WINTER STORM WATCH WED WIZ005-010>012-018-019-021-

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-161645-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S. THIS CONTRAST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL IN THE EAST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW IS LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHEAST WINDS...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES...OR ADVISORIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM RHINELANDER TO STURGEON BAY.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
238 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0228 PM    2 SE TIGERTON             WI   1 INCH HAIL
04/15/03   SHAWANO

JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 PM    4 E FORESTVILLE           WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/15/03   DOOR

ECKBERG