Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2003

TONIGHT...MAIN CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KS
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) AND
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR (850 WINDS SOUTH AT 20 KNOTS/700 MB WINDS
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS/500 MB WINDS WEST AT 25 KNOTS). THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND FORM A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW THE MCS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
THERE...ALTHOUGH MCS LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN. PREFER ETA RAIN
CHANCES. WITH ADEQUATE CAPE AND WIND SHEAR...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE ZONES.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...NON-DESCRIPT UPPER PATTERN PREVAILS.
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE COLORADO ROCKIES IN LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE AXIS. STEERING FLOW WOULD BRING THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR
HIGHS...PREFER WARMER ETA MOS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES PRESENT...WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER PEAK HEATING. WARMER ETA MOS HIGHS
LOOK BEST.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND BASED ON LOW
LEVEL WIND PROJECTIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDERSTORMS. GFS MOS HIGHS
LOOK TOO COLD BASED ON PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...GFS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEADS TO HIGHER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WITH UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES...WILL KEEP THESE DAYS DRY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO COLD
BASED ON UPPER RIDGING STRENGTH AND GFS TYPICAL COOL BIAS.

.GLD...NONE.

SR

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA
TO STRATTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS IN COLORADO AND THEN TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING MAKING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA ALMOST
EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-120400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND ARE BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR TRIBUNE KANSAS TO COLBY TO MCCOOK NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLORADO ARE MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG A SECOND BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TRI STATE AREA. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE STORMS...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JDK