Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELS
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE PLAINS. BOTH ETA/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL
THIS MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY USE A BLEND OF BOTH FOR VARIOUS
PARAMETERS. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME MORNING
POPS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE SOME INSOLATION TODAY AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ETA 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS WITH
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ETA STABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 30/40 POPS WEST/EAST. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS MCS APPEARS LIKELY.

MONDAY...BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGHS NEAR
80 ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

NO CHANGES TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 AT THIS TIME.

.GLD...NONE.

MCGUIRE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO
TOWARDS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO TODAY.  THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TRI STATE AREA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453 FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...FAR EAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WATCH IS
EFFECTIVE FROM 1230 PM MDT (130 PM CDT) UNTIL 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT).

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

IN FAR EAST COLORADO...YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE.

IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...
THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY AND
WICHITA.

IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LOCKHART