Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AND EXTENT OF
WARMUP MID WEEK.

TONIGHT...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO GOVE COUNTY KANSAS.
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE HIGHEST
POPS IN THIS AREA ACCORDINGLY. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA
SUBSIDENCE AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL EXIST. ETA BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITY QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS SO EXTENT OF FOG
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND UPPER PATTERN REMAINING UNCHANGED WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG...
PRIMARILY FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO GOVE COUNTY KANSAS.

SUNDAY...DESPITE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS FROM YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO TO GOVE COUNTY KANSAS 700-500 LAPSE RATES BELOW 6 C/KM AND
TOTAL-TOTALS BELOW 50 SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE SEVERE FROM CURRENT RESEARCH. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 PLUS OR MINUS A FEW.

MONDAY...DESPITE SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN THE 700 THETA-E/DEWPOINT
FORECAST 850 MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/TOTAL-
TOTALS STABILIZE BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD
AND KEEP DRY FORECAST IN TACT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL A BIT WITH
READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AS UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA. 850
TEMPS WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PACIFIC COAST ENERGY COMES ASHORE...
FLATTENING THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
ANALYSIS IS SHARED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS BOTH
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RUNS. ENSEMBLE MOS MEMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON MIN TEMPS AND LATEST GFS 850 TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH UPPER FLOW
AND HEIGHTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 6 C/KM...NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ONGOING RESEARCH.
HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR THURSDAY...
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY SUGGESTS SOME
PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH UNDER TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW. WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN WARM 700 TEMPS. SATURDAY FEATURES RETURN
FLOW WITH BEST INSTABILITY (TOTAL-TOTALS) MAINLY TO OUR WEST. LAPSE
RATES MARGINAL AT BEST SO WILL GO DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WEDNESDAY
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWER 90S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

DDT

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOVE KANSAS.
A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP
TO TWO INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0143 PM    14 S GOVE                 KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   GOVE                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-041-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #426 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

IN EASTERN COLORADO...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE

IN KANSAS...SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF LIMON COLORADO
TO 75 MILES EAST OF RATON NEW MEXICO.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

DDT