Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2003

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED DUE TO PRESENCE OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG COLD FRONTAL FORCING/LIFT LATE.
IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN KS WITH ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
EXPECT INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVLOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN CO PLAINS IN
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGNOSIS...MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HAVE FOLLOWED ETA AS ITS FIELDS LOOK THE
CLOSEST TO EXPECTED SCENARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE
BASED ON ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR/LIFT...BUT NORTH/EAST ZONES
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.

MON...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS (25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45). WITH ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A 2ND PERIOD WIND ADVISORY. SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES END BY MIDDAY AS
LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING CEASES.

TUE...DESPITE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES/LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COOL DAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 6-13C. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...SO DRY HERE.

WED...NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUING.
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. THUS...BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE EVENING. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW THOUGH.

THU...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW ALOFT
VEERING TO MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND WEAKENING...EXPECT
STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO STAY WEST OF
OUR ZONES.

FRI/SAT/SUN...18/00Z GFS RUN SIMILAR TO 17/00Z RUN LEADING TO MORE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF
RIDGING ALOFT...GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO COLD.

.GLD...NONE.

SAR

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2003

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM MDT (9 PM AND 3 AM
CDT).  HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  STORMS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...THEY WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A
COLD FRONT PACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
NORTH WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION MAY BE REQUIRED.  ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOO DARK
FOR MOBILE SPOTTING ACTIVITIES...REPORTS OF HAIL IN EXCESS OF 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MORE...AND WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE APPRECIATED OVERNIGHT.

ENTWISTLE

COZ090>092-190400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
939 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS.

ENTWISTLE