Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM TODAY AND
THE AMOUNT OF COOLDOWN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

AT 08Z STORMS TRYING TO FIRE WITHIN 06Z 700 THETA-E AXIS. WILL WAIT
TILL PRESS TIME AND DECIDE WHERE TO INCLUDE SOME MORNING STORMS IF
AT ALL. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS KEEPING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA UNDER GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF 850/700 THETA-E HANGS ON OVER THE
EAST. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SEVERE STORMS AS OMEGA FIELDS...700 MB
DEWPOINTS AND K-INDICES ALL UNFAVORABLE. BY LATE AFTERNOON DRYLINE
WILL HAVE MOVED ANY MOISTURE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY BEFORE CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM NEAR 80
WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST. LOWS TONIGHT MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD
THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY AS SURGE COMES IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT WITH
850 TEMPS FROM THE GFS/ETA/NGM SUPPORTING LOWER 70S WEST AND NORTH...
UPPER 70S EAST AND SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S. WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS UPPER LOW PUSHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME A MODEST UPPER WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SYSTEM...
PROVIDING MORE RAIN OR SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IN A NUTSHELL ITS GONNA BE WET. MODELS
MAINTAIN THINKING THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BUMP POPS UP
JUST A BIT MORE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THEM PRETTY WELL IN HAND.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP COMES TO AN END BY MIDDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST. HOWEVER...FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
HAVE CONSIDERABLE WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. OTHER THAN A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST DOWNWARD MOTION AND
LACK OF TRIGGER LOOKS TO ADVERTISE A DRY DAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER
AS 850 TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN BUT SMALL CHANGES CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH
850/700 THETA-E AXIS SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST...REACHING THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. WEAK WAVE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S.

MONDAY...AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE...INSTABILITY
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN SOME SLOW
WARMING WITH 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. WILL GO WITH READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE.

.GLD...NONE.

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COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-140600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST TO
HILL CITY KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE HILL CITY AREA WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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