Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT BUT THEN BREAKS DOWN
INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PACKAGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT
STEERING WIND. THE FORECAST INVERTED V SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH WEAKER
STORMS BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WIND WITH A
FEW OF THE STORMS. ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO COOL DOWN ABOUT 6 DEGREES C INTO THE
LOWER 20S. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S LOOK GOOD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
IN THE EASTERN ZONES. A STRONGER AND COLDER PUSH FROM THE NORTH IS
ADVERTIZED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT WILL NOT BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC SO SLIGHT CHANCE WILL DO
FOR NOW.

DAYS 4-7...MAJOR COOL DOWN STILL ADVERTIZED BY MRF ON SATURDAY AS
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE CAUTIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES. COOL TREND IS ALREADY WORDED IN THE
FORECAST AND SEE NO REASON TO GO ANY LOWER THAN UPPER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. THANKS FOR COORDINATION DDC. SOME MORNING
-TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR FRONT. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AS WELL AS
RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES AT 850MB MONDAY/TUESDAY.
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR AFTEROON AND NIGHTTIME -TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.GLD...NONE.

FS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
807 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT ON
THIS AIR MASS...AND PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT). THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SHARON SPRINGS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS TO HOXIE. BECAUSE OF AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BULLER/SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0335 PM    BIRD CITY ARPT            KS   72 MPH TSTM GUST
08/25/03   CHEYENNE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.