Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2003

CHALLENGES ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG EXTREME SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND NORTHWEST FRI EVENING.

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ALMOST ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GLD FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT NOW (20Z) STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF HAYS TO NEAR
TRIBUNE TO THE FLAGLER CO AREA. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH
FROM HAYS EAST BUT IS NEAR STATIONARY FROM TRIBUNE TO THE
NORTHWEST.

LATEST RUN OF THE RUC...AND TO SOME EXTENT MESOETA...SHOWS SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF EVENING TSRA/SHRA ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING IN CHEYENNE
COUNTY CO AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS. THEN CLEARING.
ELSEWHERE IN AREA DRIER SURFACE AIR MOVING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES HAS
LED ME TO GO FOR MID TO UPPER 50S LOWS MOST EVERYWHERE...SLIGHTLY TO
A CATEGORY BELOW GUIDANCE.

FRI UPPER RIDGE...WHICH STRENTHENED ABOUT 30-50 METERS AT 500 MB
ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GO SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM
MID 90S IN EAST...WITH RETREATING COOLER AIR AND MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE WEST. ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY EVENING UPPER VERTICAL MOTION
REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST IT IS WEAK. BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AND SUSTAIN AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEST IS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.

THEREAFTER HAVE CONTINUED DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND (HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING 100 BOTH SAT AND SUN...AND NEAR SO MON) AS
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT BUT BECOMES WEST TO EAST ORIENTED.
MODELS STILL SHOW SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO DRAG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON. HOW MOIST THE AIR MASS WILL BE ON TUE AND
EARLY WED IS STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKNESS IN THE READJUSTING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWS FOR CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL
DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER ACROSS KS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ON TUE AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO WED
AM. AT SAME TIME SOUTHEAST KS COULD REMAIN CLEAR AND NEAR
100.

AS WEEK PASSES THE MID POINT RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD IN WEST AND GFS
SHOWS MAJOR UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH IN EAST CANADA TOWARDS GREAT
LAKES. IF THIS OCCURS COOLER AIR POSSIBLE NEAR END OF WEEK. FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH DRY FROM MIDDAY WED ON WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL. FRI RUNS SHOULD DETERMINE WHETHER COOLER WEATHER OCCURS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
930 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL PRODUCE
EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.  ALL OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND
DRIFT EAST INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FS/JDK