Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2003

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING AND EXTENT OF POPS THIS
EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 18Z SHOWING A LINE OF SOME MOD CU/ISOLATED TCU
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS MOSTLY
CLEAR EAST OF THE ROCKIES. LINE APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AS INDICATED BY THE 17Z SURFACE CHART. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND SHIFTING EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES. DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS LINE. ALSO DRYING
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
MOST OF THE KANSAS ZONES EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE RED
WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA WITH SCATTERED POPS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3 LOOKS DRY AS UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 100 POSSIBLE
IN THE HILL CITY AREA.

DAYS 4-7...THE RIDGE RETROGRADES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES BY
DAY 6. SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -TSRA ALONG SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA DAYS
4/5. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON DAYS 6/7 ALONG WITH COOLER
850 TEMPERATURES.

.GLD...NONE.

FS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEFINITIVE DRYLINE HAS FORMED AND EXTENDS FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO AT 1 PM MDT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG THE LINE AND MORE ARE EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 10 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE DRYLINE AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDED BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE RETURNS TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.  BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT COVERAGE
WILL BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RJC