Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS.

THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...CAN BE SEEN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND ITS AXIS.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
PROVIDES GOOD FORCIING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE COLORADO ZONES WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE POPS INDICATE HIGH CHANCE
POPS BUT WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. ON MONDAY...THE
THETAE RIDGE WILLL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY MAX HEATING. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
EASTERN COLORADO ZONES LEFT WANTING FOR DYNAMICS. ACTION SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EASTERN ZONES MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ETA/GFS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
WITH SOME FORCING INDICATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH DAY 3 SO EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

DAYS 4-7...DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS WITH MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS MORE DIFFUSED AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS WEAKER SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYS 6/7.

.GLD...NONE.

FS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TRISTATE AREA TONIGHT. A MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT
DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD START BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THE EAST
MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AND THROUGH
THE RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
BUT MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AGAIN THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
REINITIATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRISTATE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

RJC