Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003

WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTHWARD ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. MAV POPS ARE VERY LOW
COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER OF THE
TWO AND WATCH LATEST TRENDS BEFORE BUMPING POPS UP. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT OR EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE READINGS TODAY WITH UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 90S EAST.
WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES IN VICINITY OF FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND HEAT UP AS
WEST/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
96 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS LEE TROUGH/BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TROUGH. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES AND GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA..CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY LOOK GOOD WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND. GFS IS SHOWING QPF AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA...HOWEVER LEFT SUNDAY/MONDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH RIDGE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.GLD...NONE.

MCGUIRE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A
LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND LEOTI KANSAS. MOIST UPSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO TRIGGER THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. EVEN SO...STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IN
THE TRI STATE AREA. WIND PROFILES REMAIN WEAK...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS...INCLUDING
HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JDK