Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Goodland, KS

July 13, 2003Kit Carson County, Colorado

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2003, 3:38 PM MDT for Kit Carson County, Colorado. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2003, 3:38 PM MDT (21:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2003, 4:45 PM MDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Kit Carson County, CO

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 193 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -447 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

086 
WUUS53 KGLD 132138
SVRGLD
COC063-132245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
338 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

* UNTIL 445 PM MDT

* AT 338 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLAGLER AT 350 PM MDT

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 75
MPH OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR MORE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES OR LARGER. FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF YOU ARE
OUTSIDE...MOVE TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3904 10250 3930 10275 3929 10316 3903 10317

THEDE

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 1:20 PM MDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 1:20 PM MDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN CO...ALONG AND JUST WEST OF OUR ZONES. HOWEVER...WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THIS ALSO SEEN ON MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CO ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT THIS TIME. WILL WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
MAY NEED TO INSERT 10-20 PERCENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS/NEB ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MON...PRE=FRONTAL TROUGH AND COOL FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE ZONES IN
THE MORNING. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR 16C AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT BY THAT TIME THE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR ZONES...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. PREFER
WARMER ETA MOS HIGHS OVER COOLER NGM/GFS MOS.

TUE...LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEST OF OUR ZONES...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY HERE. PLUS...MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 14-16C RANGE...SO NEGATIVE
BUOYANCE LOOKS LIKE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. ETA/NGM/GFS GUIDANCE HIGHS
LOOK TOO COOL BASED ON STRENGTH OF RIDGING ALOFT AND FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.

WED...BROAD SCALE 594 DEKAMETER 500 MB RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...SO WILL
REMAIN DRY. GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO COOL PER 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 31C.

THU-SUN...13/00Z GFS RUN LIKELY BREAKING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TOO QUICKLY (AS IS ITS TENDENCY). PREFER THE 12/00Z RUN.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRI/SAT/SUN...BASED ON EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGING.

.GLD...NONE.

SR

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 10:39 AM MDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED. THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 4:46 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	59 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.