Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ALSO REMAIN FROM
CONVECTION OF LAST NIGHT. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH
IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY LATEST RADAR DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO ARRIVING IN WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
A LOW WAS SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE UPPER
RIDGING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND WERE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS RUN. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND MESOETA MODELS
OUT THROUGH 48 HOURS. GFS MODEL WAS BEST HANDLING THE TEMPERATURE
AND WIND FIELDS WHILE THE MESOETA MODEL WAS BEST WITH POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS.

WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM CONVECTION OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH ACTIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALSO LOOK REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAME PATTERN EXISTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE DRY AND STABLE.
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS
KEEPING THEM DRY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DRY RIDGING RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL ADD DAY 7 (FRIDAY) TO THIS FORECAST. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALOUD THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO AN AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST TO COLBY AND GOVE KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0123 PM    13 S ST FRANCIS           KS   .88 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   CHEYENNE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    5 W SHARON SPGS           KS   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   WALLACE                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.