Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Grand Junction, CO

000 
RWUS32 KGJT 140305
FFSGJT
COC091-113-140500-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
904 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT FOR EASTERN SAN 
MIGUEL AND SOUTHERN OURAY COUNTIES...

THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CITIES OF OURAY...RIDGWAY...TELLURIDE...
FALL CREEK...AND PLACERVILLE.

AT 900 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN RIDGWAY AND OURAY... 
20 MILES SOUTH OF MONTROSE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AT 
10 MPH.

THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN 
THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE 
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL 
AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM OR CREEK...SEEK 
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

$$
CUOCO

000 
RWUS32 KGJT 140428
FFSGJT
COC091-113-140500-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1025 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN OURAY AND 
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN
THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES REPORTED MUD SLIDES 
ACROSS HIGHWAY 145 HAVE BEEN CLEARED AND THE ROAD IS OPEN. EVEN 
THOUGH STREAM AND CREEK LEVELS ARE NOW FALLING...SOME ROADWAYS MAY 
STILL BE COVERED WITH WATER. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID DRIVING 
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

$$
CUOCO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING DATA.  KGJT SOUNDING REVEALED A HIGHER EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
(NEAR 150 MB) WITH HIGHER CAPE VALUES...A LITTLE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS.  THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS FORMED
OVER THE LA SAL...ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU.  THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT EXCEPT FOR A DRIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST.  THIS ADDS UP THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
WITH STORMS ALREADY HAVE FIRED OFF WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL
INCREASE AWARENESS BY ISSUING AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY.
MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER THE LOWER
VALLEYS.  ALL POPS THIS EVENING WILL BE 30 PERCENT OR GREATER.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM.  CURRENT STORMS
ALREADY SHOW A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...SUGGESTING
NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY REACHED THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS FLOW
WILL INCREASE AS THE INVERTED TROUGH REACHES NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN
COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING VORTICITY
ADVECTION INTO WESTERN COLORADO.  INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE MID
LEVEL DRYING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO.  THIS IDEA IS
ACCEPTED AND CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THERE.
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH...SO CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE INITIALLY SUPPRESSED...BUT WILL FIRE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT.  DYNAMICS ALOFT SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHEASTERLY SPEED MAXIMA WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT.  PREVIOUS
GRIDS ACCEPTED WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS IDEA.  FRISBIE

MID-TERM DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING UPPER LOW (TUTT) MOVEMENT. FROM THE AZ/NM
BOOTHEEL ON FRIDAY THE LOW LIFTS AND FILLS ON SATURDAY FOR AN
INCREASED MOISTURE FETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...A COOL-DOWN IS IN STORE. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT...SO WOULD EXPECT A SHIFT OF CONVECTION TO LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. STEERING WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY SHOWERS/POTENTIAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z RUN OF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH BUT EXPECT IT TO LIFT BY
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO A LOWER GRADE MONSOON. RAMEY

WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TO 4 CORNERS AREA
FOR DECREASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING
TREND.  PRINGLE

.GJT...NONE.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-141145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND FOR
EASTERN UTAH

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE
SUDDEN WATER RISES IN NORMALLY DRY CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
ARROYOS. STREET FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUD FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES...ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN BURNED BY WILDFIRES. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH DIAMETER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PHONE IN REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

COLTON