Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
248 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

...TIMING OF SEVERE AND WIND MAIN FCST PROBLEMS...

DRYLINE TRYING TO SHARPEN UP OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS STARTING UP ALONG
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT FEELING HERE, AND AGREE WITH LATEST
SPC THOUGHTS, IS THAT STORMS WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ETA
KF AND UPDRAFT MASS FLUX ALSO SUGGESTING SAME. SEE LITTLE REASON THEN
TO CHANGE WHAT WE HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS
FOR WINDS...WITH SFC LOW CRANKING UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INCREASING ACCORDINGLY, SEE
NO REASON WHY CWA WONT CONTINUE TO REALIZE WIND ADV CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS, WILL PLAN TO EXTEND AND EXPAND WIND ADV
TO COVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AGAIN CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE, THUS SEE
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST SAVE FOR INCREASING POPS DUE TO
THE EXPECTED WRAPAROUND PCPN SHIELD. AGAIN...VERY TIGHT SFC GRADIENT
ALL CWA TOMORROW, SO WILL PLAN TO BLANKET CWA WITH AN ADVISORY. WITH
AMPLE CLOUD AROUND MOST OF THE DAY, WE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
REALIZING ANY DOWNWARD MOM. TRANSFER...THUS WILL JUST STICK WITH THE
ADVISORY. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE FOR WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER HIGHS
THANKS TO CAA AND CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH POPS
ALREADY IN FORECAST, WILL PLAN TO LEAVE ALONE THIS CYCLE AS WELL.

.GID...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
       WIND ADVISORY ALL CWA FOR WEDNESDAY.

16

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1108 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME OF WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SEVERE.

IN ADDITION...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 15 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
HAIL.

DEE