Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

NO SIG CHANGES THROUGH ENTIRE FCST. SFC FRONT CUTTING INTO CENTRAL
SD FROM E...WITH PREFRONTAL CONV ZONE NEAR N CNTRL NE/S CNTRL SD
BORDER. WEAK LOW PRESS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP OVR NERN CO. SRN
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AXIS DIRECTED DIRECTED FROM SWRN MN BACK INTO WRN
NE PANHANDLE...WITH NRN AND STRONGER AXIS FROM MN INTO ERN MT.
RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST LL 850 PUSH BEGINNING TO SLIDE UP INTO NERN CO
SERN WY AND WRN NE PANHANDLE...AND UNDERNEATH FIRST MID WAVE. EXPECT
ELEVATED AREA OF CLOUDS TO START FORMING NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WORKING SOUTH BY FCST ISSUANCE. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF CWA THROUGH MORNING HRS...WITH MUCH
BETTER...REMEMBER THIS IS ALL RELATIVE...CHANCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD OVR NRN FA...THEN S BY EVENING. 40 KTS OF SHEAR NEAR ALONG
FRONT...WITH SB CAPES RUNNING 2-3K J/KG DURING AFT PERIOD OVR NRN
FA. LL SHEAR STRONGEST E OF HIGHWAY 281. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SUPER CELLS UNDER WEAK OR MODERATE CAP PROBABLY BY
MID AFTERNOON ANYWHERE N OF INTERSTATE 80. HAIL WIND LIKELY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO GO UP...WITH ADDITIONAL CHC FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ANY OF AFTERNOON
STORMS FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SPIN UP. EXPECT STORMS TO LINE OUT
BY EARLY EVE AND BECOME MAINLY WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH NERN CO
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING TODAY IN VIGOROUS NW FLOW...ALSO EXPECT SFC
FRONT TO HANG UP A BIT...ALLOWING CONVECTION FROM ELEVATED AREAS
WEST TO RIDE ALONG NICE THETA E BOUNDARY SETTING UP N OF DEVELOPING
LOW...KEEPING CHCS FOR PRECIP OVR NIGHT ESP SRN HALF FA...WITH SMALL
CHC FRI AM IN KS COUNTIES.

BEYOND...NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

10

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER BY 7 PM.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER 4 PM.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND WILL HELP TO FIRE STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KISNER