Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

LOW IN EAST CENTRAL SD WITH FRONT TRAILING SW INTO N CNTRL NE THEN
UP THROUGH SWRN SD...WITH SMALL PRE FRONTAL TROUGH JUST OUT AHEAD.
NICE LL MINI DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO LL JUICE NEAR CHADRON AREA...WITH
FIRST STORM OF DAY ALREADY GOING UP OVR ELEVATED TERRAIN AND WEAKER
CAP. ANOTHER LL CONVERGENCE AREA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
FROM MORNING STORMS OVR MN AND IA...JUST OVR NERN TO ERN CWA.
MID/UPR WAVE AXIS ROUGHLY CUTTING CWA IN HALF FROM NE TO SW. POOR LL
SPEED SHEAR...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OUT AHEAD...WITH BEST UPR
LVL SPEED SHEAR OVR NERN QUAD OF NE. STRONG PREFRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONT HAS WARMED TEMPS TO LOW/MID 90S
ALREADY...AND WITH 70 DEW PTS OVR ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF NE...HUGE
CAPES BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 IN LOWER LEVELS.

ONCE AGAIN A BIT OF A TOUGH FCST. CAPPED OVR OUR CWA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MARGINAL LL FORCING NEAR FRONT AND FA SPLIT BETWEEN
DECENT UPR DYNAMICS E/NE TO RATHER SLIGHT SW. MOD SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAY BE ABLE TO CONVECT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING...ESPECIALLY
NERN CWA. GOING WITH 30 POPS EVERYWHERE FOR TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHC
FOR SEVERE ERN PORTION CWA...E OR HWY 281. STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS...MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL. IF SFC BASED CONV
CAN BREAK THROUGH SOMEWHERE...SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING TSRA...WITH MOTION TO S OR SSE.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY OF POSSIBILITIES...WITH GOOD LL
FORCING MOVING THROUGH...PUSHED FROM N BY RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
JUST NOW OVR SWRN MT...DRAGGING MUCH COLDER MID LVL TEMPS OVERHEAD.
BETTER HAIL CHANCES MONDAY...AND AGAIN GOING WITH 30 POPS EVERYWHERE
FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

BEYOND...WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM AK GULF...RIDGE CONTINUES
TO FLATTEN BY WEEKS END...AND WITH MUCH COOLER OVERHEAD TEMPS MAKING
WAY DOWN BACKSIDE OF MID CANADIAN TROUGH...WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE
UNSTABLE/ACTIVE OVR WEEKEND IF MDLS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TREND. SO ADDED PERIODS OF LOW CHCS FOR SAT/SUN AND KEPT THU/FRI
CHCS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.

.GID...NONE.

10

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED FROM A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IOWA MAY
MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO KICK OFF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE REGION HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE BETTER MID
LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING NORTHEAST.

HOWEVER WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
AGAIN DURING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

EWALD