Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

...POT SVR WX IS THE CONCERN OF THE DAY...

AREA OF CONCERN IS SFC FRONT STALLED ACRS NCNTRL KS THIS AFTN WITH
ST N OF THE BNDRY AND MID TO UPR 70S TEMPS OVER LOW 60S DPS TO THE
SOUTH.  LAPS HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WERE NOSING INTO
THIS JEWELL AND MITCHELL CNTIES AS OF 17Z.  VWP PLOTS AND PROFILERS
IND IND ERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH SOME ELEVATED TSRA
FORMING IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SFC FRONT.

SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGH PLNS DVLPMNT AS THE AFTN/EVE PROGRESSES
WITH MSTR CNVRGNC IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN ADVN OF NXT SHRT MOVG OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  TSRA CONSOLIDATION INTO ANOTHER MCS IND
FOR THE OVRNGT HR...WITH EWD MOVEMENT ALNG/JUST N OF 850 WARM/STNRY
FRNT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONED A BIT N OF THE +RA AREA FM
LAST NGTS SYS.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WL BE WATCHING THE SFC BNDRY THIS AFTN/EVE
FOR THE DREADED TOR WITH +TSRAGR AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE OVRNGT HRS.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ONLY TO THE REST OF THE PACKAGE.

.GID...NONE.

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KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE POSSIBLY OF A FEW TORNADOES
ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 4 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 181. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COMBINE INTO A COUPLE OF LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEXES THAT WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COMBINED
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE SAME SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

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